{"F": {"ts_code": "603456.SH", "name": "九洲药业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "医疗服务", "sw3": "医疗研发外包", "ind": "医疗服务", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20141010", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 15.07, "pe_ttm": 22.4587, "pb": 1.4928, "dv_ttm": 1.9907, "total_mv": 1328736.97, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [37.5, 33.3, 34.7, 37.7, 33.8, 36.9], "rev_series": [26.5, 40.6, 54.5, 55.2, 51.6, 55.1], "np_series": [3.8, 6.3, 9.2, 10.3, 6.1, 7.3], "roe_series": [12.8, 16.6, 18.7, 15.0, 7.1, 8.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 52.1, "np_ttm": 5.9, "ocf_ttm": 15.3, "fcf_ttm": 9.3, "fcf_yield": 7.0, "ocf_yield": 11.5, "gm_median": 34.7, "gm_std": 1.7, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -2.8, "npm_median": 15.6, "roe_median": 15.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 40.0, "fix_assets": 42.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 1.49, "capex_dep": 1.57, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 15.8, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 86.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 0.4, "np_cagr3": -7.4, "rev_yoy": -10.3, "np_yoy": -26.3, "np_vol": 36.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 78.0, "earn_yield": 4.5, "consensus_n": 12, "fwd_pe": 16.2, "fwd_pe2": 14.4, "fwd_g1": 38.0, "fwd_g2": 13.0, "peg": 1.25, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["新药定制研发和生产服务（CDMO）", 43.0], ["新药定制研发和生产服务(CDMO)", 43.0], ["特色原料药及中间体", 11.0], ["其他主营业务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 36.1, "ret_prev2_year": -43.4, "ret_ytd": -15.3, "ret_pivot": 29.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -8.4, "ret_60": 23.7, "ret_120": -9.9, "ret_250": -18.8, "mdd_250": -44.4, "vol_250": 43.1, "pos_52w": 69.2}, "S": {"duration": 43, "pricing": 56, "hard": 64, "bondness": 62}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 22.5 倍、股息率 2.0%、毛利率近 5 年中位 34.7%、固定资产占比 40%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 40%、毛利率 34.7% 两条都占,但所在行业(医药生物)不在硬资产名单里(医药/科技的固定资产是产能不是储量),按主标签看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 7.0%(经营现金流/市值 11.5%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 34.7%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 40%,资本开支/折旧 1.57 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 22.5 倍 粗算,约 78%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -19%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 43%,现价在 52 周高点的 69%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -8% / 24% / -10%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「医疗服务」52 家中位:PE 73.1 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 41.3% / 固定资产占比 19% / 分红率 34%。", "九洲药业:PE 比行业中位低 50.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 21.1个百分点。"]}}