{"F": {"ts_code": "603435.SH", "name": "嘉德利", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "塑料", "sw3": "膜材料", "ind": "塑料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20260522", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 47.5, "pe_ttm": 85.7341, "pb": 9.9011, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 2181045.625, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [49.3, 41.8, 46.1, 46.6], "rev_series": [5.5, 5.3, 7.3, 7.6], "np_series": [1.9, 1.4, 2.4, 2.4], "roe_series": [29.6, 19.6, 26.2, 19.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 8.4, "np_ttm": 2.5, "ocf_ttm": 2.4, "fcf_ttm": -2.2, "fcf_yield": -1.0, "ocf_yield": 1.1, "gm_median": 46.3, "gm_std": 2.7, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 32.3, "roe_median": 23.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 43.2, "fix_assets": 11.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 9.9, "capex_dep": 8.24, "interest_debt": 1.8, "debt_ebitda": 0.5, "debt_ratio": 14.1, "debt_mv": 0.8, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 11.2, "np_cagr3": 8.2, "rev_yoy": 21.3, "np_yoy": 8.7, "np_vol": 40.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["薄膜", 46.0], ["再造粒子", 3.0], ["再造粒", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -13.3, "ret_60": -26.0, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": -67.9, "vol_250": 95.0, "pos_52w": 37.2}, "S": {"duration": 88, "pricing": 64, "hard": 69, "bondness": 10}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 11 亿,占总资产 43%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 46.3%,稳定度 94%。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 -1.0%,股息率 —,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 94%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 43%)和定价权(毛利率 46.3% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.0%(经营现金流/市值 1.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 46.3%,稳定度 94%。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 43%,资本开支/折旧 8.24 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 85.7 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「塑料」77 家中位:PE 41.1 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 16.9% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 40%。", "嘉德利:PE 比行业中位高 44.6倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 29.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 11.3个百分点。"]}}