{"F": {"ts_code": "603421.SH", "name": "鼎信通讯", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "通信", "sw2": "通信设备", "sw3": "通信网络设备及器件", "ind": "通信设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20161011", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.87, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.6629, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 382835.8235, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [46.2, 41.1, 44.0, 40.7, 36.4, 26.1], "rev_series": [21.0, 28.2, 31.1, 36.3, 30.9, 15.0], "np_series": [1.8, 1.6, 1.2, 1.3, -2.4, -6.4], "roe_series": [5.9, 4.9, 3.6, 3.9, -7.4, -22.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 12.5, "np_ttm": -6.2, "ocf_ttm": 2.1, "fcf_ttm": 2.1, "fcf_yield": 5.5, "ocf_yield": 5.6, "gm_median": 40.7, "gm_std": 6.3, "gm_stab": 0.85, "gm_chg_2022": -2.3, "npm_median": 3.6, "roe_median": 3.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 31.4, "fix_assets": 10.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.66, "capex_dep": 0.03, "interest_debt": 6.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 33.1, "debt_mv": 15.7, "payout": 30.5, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -21.6, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -35.8, "np_yoy": 9.5, "np_vol": 112.6, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["电力电子产品", 35.0], ["消防产品", 11.0], ["材料销售", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 0.4, "ret_prev2_year": -23.7, "ret_ytd": -18.0, "ret_pivot": -10.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.8, "ret_60": -9.1, "ret_120": -37.4, "ret_250": -18.2, "mdd_250": -51.1, "vol_250": 51.1, "pos_52w": 55.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 56, "hard": 50, "bondness": 34}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -6.2 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 33%,有息负债 6 亿,经营现金流/市值 5.6%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 31%、毛利率 40.7% 两条都占,但所在行业(通信)不在硬资产名单里(医药/科技的固定资产是产能不是储量),按主标签看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 5.5%(经营现金流/市值 5.6%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 40.7%,稳定度 85%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 31%,资本开支/折旧 0.03 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -18%,最大回撤 -51%,年化波动 51%,现价在 52 周高点的 56%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / -9% / -37%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通信设备」89 家中位:PE 84.6 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 29.1% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 41%。", "鼎信通讯:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 11.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 17.2个百分点。"]}}