{"F": {"ts_code": "603416.SH", "name": "信捷电气", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "自动化设备", "sw3": "机器人", "ind": "自动化设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20161221", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 47.13, "pe_ttm": 26.2258, "pb": 2.7502, "dv_ttm": 3.2653, "total_mv": 739826.4741, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [43.8, 40.4, 37.3, 35.8, 37.7, 37.5], "rev_series": [11.3, 13.0, 13.4, 15.1, 17.1, 20.1], "np_series": [3.3, 3.0, 2.2, 2.0, 2.3, 2.5], "roe_series": [24.4, 18.5, 11.9, 9.7, 10.3, 10.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 22.4, "np_ttm": 2.8, "ocf_ttm": 1.5, "fcf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_yield": 0.9, "ocf_yield": 2.0, "gm_median": 37.5, "gm_std": 1.5, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -6.5, "npm_median": 13.4, "roe_median": 10.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 12.7, "fix_assets": 5.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.75, "capex_dep": 2.29, "interest_debt": 0.9, "debt_ebitda": 0.3, "debt_ratio": 34.6, "debt_mv": 1.2, "payout": 53.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 14.7, "np_cagr3": 4.6, "rev_yoy": 25.6, "np_yoy": 22.0, "np_vol": 15.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 81.0, "earn_yield": 3.8, "consensus_n": 8, "fwd_pe": 23.4, "fwd_pe2": 19.3, "fwd_g1": 12.0, "fwd_g2": 22.0, "peg": 1.06, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["设备销售及其他主营业务", 33.0], ["设备销售及其他", 33.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 37.3, "ret_prev2_year": 13.2, "ret_ytd": -13.2, "ret_pivot": 80.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -8.3, "ret_60": -11.2, "ret_120": -7.7, "ret_250": -18.1, "mdd_250": -32.6, "vol_250": 46.0, "pos_52w": 72.7}, "S": {"duration": 48, "pricing": 56, "hard": 20, "bondness": 44}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["现金流红利", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 22%,PE TTM 26.2 倍 但前瞻 PE 23.4 倍,PEG 1.06。", "自由现金流 0.7 亿(正),次年预期增速 22%(8 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 37.5%),硬资产占比 13%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.9%(经营现金流/市值 2.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 37.5%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 13%,资本开支/折旧 2.29 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 26.2 倍 粗算,约 81%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -18%,最大回撤 -33%,年化波动 46%,现价在 52 周高点的 73%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -8% / -11% / -8%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「自动化设备」93 家中位:PE 77.4 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 33.9% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 42%。", "信捷电气:PE 比行业中位低 51.2倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 3.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.1个百分点。"]}}