{"F": {"ts_code": "603408.SH", "name": "建霖家居", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "家居用品", "sw3": "卫浴制品", "ind": "家居用品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20200730", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.98, "pe_ttm": 13.1295, "pb": 1.5784, "dv_ttm": 5.3422, "total_mv": 536192.454, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [26.9, 22.8, 24.3, 26.0, 25.9, 25.8], "rev_series": [38.4, 47.1, 41.9, 43.3, 50.1, 51.2], "np_series": [3.6, 3.8, 4.6, 4.2, 4.8, 4.4], "roe_series": [18.9, 15.1, 16.7, 14.2, 15.1, 13.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 55.6, "np_ttm": 4.1, "ocf_ttm": 4.1, "fcf_ttm": -0.4, "fcf_yield": -0.7, "ocf_yield": 7.6, "gm_median": 25.8, "gm_std": 1.3, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -2.7, "npm_median": 9.6, "roe_median": 15.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 32.1, "fix_assets": 18.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.58, "capex_dep": 2.35, "interest_debt": 8.4, "debt_ebitda": 1.1, "debt_ratio": 40.3, "debt_mv": 15.6, "payout": 64.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 6.9, "np_cagr3": -1.3, "rev_yoy": 18.5, "np_yoy": -13.6, "np_vol": 11.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 62.0, "earn_yield": 7.6, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 11.3, "fwd_pe2": 9.3, "fwd_g1": 16.0, "fwd_g2": 21.0, "peg": 0.54, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 50.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 13.3, "ret_prev2_year": 3.3, "ret_ytd": -7.1, "ret_pivot": 33.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 15.9, "ret_60": 19.4, "ret_120": 1.1, "ret_250": -0.2, "mdd_250": -31.2, "vol_250": 32.9, "pos_52w": 85.4}, "S": {"duration": 28, "pricing": 52, "hard": 51, "bondness": 69}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "股息率≥4%", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 64%、股息率 5.3%、营收 3 年复合 6.9%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.1 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 32%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 25.8%,稳定度 95%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.7%(经营现金流/市值 7.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 25.8%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 32%,资本开支/折旧 2.35 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 13.1 倍 粗算,约 62%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -0%,最大回撤 -31%,年化波动 33%,现价在 52 周高点的 85%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 16% / 19% / 1%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「家居用品」77 家中位:PE 28.3 / 股息率 1.7% / 毛利率 28.3% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 50%。", "建霖家居:PE 比行业中位低 15.2倍;股息率 比行业中位高 3.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.5个百分点。"]}}