{"F": {"ts_code": "603407.SH", "name": "长裕集团", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "小金属", "sw3": "其他小金属", "ind": "小金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20260511", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 52.31, "pe_ttm": 77.8014, "pb": 9.9539, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 2133595.1712, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [28.4, 23.4, 23.9, 25.4], "rev_series": [16.7, 16.1, 16.4, 17.8], "np_series": [2.6, 2.0, 2.1, 2.5], "roe_series": [31.4, 20.8, 18.4, 17.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 17.5, "np_ttm": 2.7, "ocf_ttm": 2.9, "fcf_ttm": 2.6, "fcf_yield": 1.2, "ocf_yield": 1.3, "gm_median": 24.6, "gm_std": 2.0, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 13.7, "roe_median": 19.6, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 18.4, "fix_assets": 4.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 9.95, "capex_dep": 0.75, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 18.8, "debt_mv": 0.0, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 2.2, "np_cagr3": -1.8, "rev_yoy": -3.8, "np_yoy": 22.1, "np_vol": 18.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.3, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 52.8, "fwd_pe2": 17.8, "fwd_g1": 47.0, "fwd_g2": 197.0, "peg": 0.27, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["锆类产品", 34.0], ["锆产品", 34.0], ["特种尼龙产品", 13.0], ["尼龙产品", 13.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -18.6, "ret_60": 4.3, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": -50.7, "vol_250": 93.7, "pos_52w": 49.3}, "S": {"duration": 86, "pricing": 70, "hard": 29, "bondness": 18}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["成长兑现", "商品定价", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 77.8 倍,估值里约 94% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 18%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(1 篇研报)前瞻 PE 52.8 倍,次年 17.8 倍,PEG 0.27。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 24.6%),硬资产占比 18%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.2%(经营现金流/市值 1.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 24.6%,稳定度 92%。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 18%,资本开支/折旧 0.75 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 77.8 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「小金属」29 家中位:PE 36.9 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 18.3% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 35%。", "长裕集团:PE 比行业中位高 40.9倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 6.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 3.3个百分点。"]}}