{"F": {"ts_code": "603406.SH", "name": "天富龙", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学纤维", "sw3": "涤纶", "ind": "化学纤维", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20250808", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 29.45, "pe_ttm": 25.1069, "pb": 2.4966, "dv_ttm": 2.5467, "total_mv": 1178029.45, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [27.2, 22.3, 18.9, 18.3, 16.5, 17.9], "rev_series": [24.9, 28.6, 25.8, 33.4, 38.4, 35.0], "np_series": [4.0, 4.5, 3.6, 4.3, 4.5, 4.4], "roe_series": [32.2, 25.9, 14.9, 15.4, 14.0, 11.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 34.0, "np_ttm": 4.7, "ocf_ttm": 5.8, "fcf_ttm": 3.5, "fcf_yield": 3.0, "ocf_yield": 4.9, "gm_median": 18.3, "gm_std": 1.9, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -8.4, "npm_median": 12.9, "roe_median": 14.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 30.1, "fix_assets": 15.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.5, "capex_dep": 1.56, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 9.1, "debt_mv": 0.0, "payout": 63.6, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 10.8, "np_cagr3": 7.3, "rev_yoy": -6.3, "np_yoy": 12.1, "np_vol": 14.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 80.0, "earn_yield": 4.0, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["聚酯及复合材料", 97.0], ["其他业务", 2.0], ["其他主营业务", 0.0], ["其他", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -27.2, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 11.0, "ret_60": 8.7, "ret_120": -23.3, "ret_250": -35.4, "mdd_250": -50.1, "vol_250": 31.4, "pos_52w": 59.2}, "S": {"duration": 47, "pricing": 44, "hard": 48, "bondness": 47}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 30%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 18.3%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.4 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 0.0 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 30%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 18.3%,稳定度 90%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.0%(经营现金流/市值 4.9%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 18.3%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 30%,资本开支/折旧 1.56 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 25.1 倍 粗算,约 80%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -35%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 31%,现价在 52 周高点的 59%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 11% / 9% / -23%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学纤维」27 家中位:PE 32.4 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 15.3% / 固定资产占比 46% / 分红率 35%。", "天富龙:PE 比行业中位低 7.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 3.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 15.5个百分点。"]}}