{"F": {"ts_code": "603402.SH", "name": "陕西旅游", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "社会服务", "sw2": "旅游及景区", "sw3": "旅游综合", "ind": "旅游及景区", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20260106", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 72.77, "pe_ttm": 24.025, "pb": 2.5522, "dv_ttm": 2.1141, "total_mv": 731580.8241, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [33.5, 38.5, -3.6, 69.7, 71.3, 67.6], "rev_series": [null, null, 2.3, 10.9, 12.6, 10.3], "np_series": [null, null, -0.7, 4.3, 5.1, 3.8], "roe_series": [6.0, 9.0, -18.5, 92.7, 62.9, 19.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 9.3, "np_ttm": 3.0, "ocf_ttm": 4.4, "fcf_ttm": 3.4, "fcf_yield": 4.7, "ocf_yield": 6.0, "gm_median": 67.6, "gm_std": 28.8, "gm_stab": 0.57, "gm_chg_2022": -37.1, "npm_median": 45.1, "roe_median": 19.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 19.2, "fix_assets": 7.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.55, "capex_dep": 1.92, "interest_debt": 0.5, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 15.2, "debt_mv": 0.8, "payout": 31.0, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 64.4, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -18.9, "np_yoy": -39.0, "np_vol": 319.9, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 79.0, "earn_yield": 4.2, "consensus_n": 7, "fwd_pe": 17.9, "fwd_pe2": 15.4, "fwd_g1": 34.0, "fwd_g2": 17.0, "peg": 1.05, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["旅游演艺", 37.0], ["旅游索道及客运分成", 26.0], ["旅游索道", 26.0], ["旅游餐饮", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 7.8, "ret_60": 2.3, "ret_120": -31.8, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": -53.5, "vol_250": 48.3, "pos_52w": 57.5}, "S": {"duration": 45, "pricing": 57, "hard": 31, "bondness": 24}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 24.0 倍、股息率 2.1%、毛利率近 5 年中位 67.6%、固定资产占比 19%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 19%,毛利率近 5 年中位 67.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.7%(经营现金流/市值 6.0%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 67.6%,稳定度 57%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -37.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 19%,资本开支/折旧 1.92 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 24.0 倍 粗算,约 79%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「旅游及景区」25 家中位:PE 66.7 / 股息率 2.0% / 毛利率 32.9% / 固定资产占比 35% / 分红率 44%。", "陕西旅游:PE 比行业中位低 42.7倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 34.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 15.6个百分点。"]}}