{"F": {"ts_code": "603400.SH", "name": "华之杰", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "金属制品", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20250620", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 53.6, "pe_ttm": 81.4291, "pb": 5.8512, "dv_ttm": 1.1472, "total_mv": 695889.336, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [27.0, 21.0, 21.5, 26.5, 26.0, 23.3], "rev_series": [null, null, 10.2, 9.4, 12.3, 14.0], "np_series": [null, null, 1.0, 1.2, 1.5, 1.2], "roe_series": [37.9, 26.4, 22.0, 23.1, 23.2, 12.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 13.8, "np_ttm": 0.9, "ocf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_ttm": -0.6, "fcf_yield": -0.9, "ocf_yield": 0.9, "gm_median": 23.3, "gm_std": 2.2, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -5.5, "npm_median": 9.9, "roe_median": 23.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 8.7, "fix_assets": 1.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.9, "pb_calc": 5.85, "capex_dep": 6.44, "interest_debt": 0.5, "debt_ebitda": 0.3, "debt_ratio": 41.4, "debt_mv": 0.7, "payout": 84.5, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 11.2, "np_cagr3": 7.3, "rev_yoy": -3.6, "np_yoy": -46.8, "np_vol": 17.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.2, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 29.1, "fwd_pe2": 20.0, "fwd_g1": 180.0, "fwd_g2": 45.0, "peg": 0.65, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["电动工具零部件：智能开关", 23.0], ["智能开关", 23.0], ["电动工具零部件：智能控制器", 11.0], ["智能控制器", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": 35.3, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 23.0, "ret_60": 19.0, "ret_120": 3.9, "ret_250": -1.8, "mdd_250": -50.9, "vol_250": 51.3, "pos_52w": 79.6}, "S": {"duration": 87, "pricing": 47, "hard": 14, "bondness": 46}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 81.4 倍,估值里约 94% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 9%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(2 篇研报)前瞻 PE 29.1 倍,次年 20.0 倍,PEG 0.65。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 9%,毛利率近 5 年中位 23.3%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.9%(经营现金流/市值 0.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 23.3%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 9%,资本开支/折旧 6.44 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 81.4 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -2%,最大回撤 -51%,年化波动 51%,现价在 52 周高点的 80%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 23% / 19% / 4%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "华之杰:PE 比行业中位高 30.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 12.1个百分点。"]}}