{"F": {"ts_code": "603396.SH", "name": "金辰股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "光伏设备", "sw3": "光伏加工设备", "ind": "光伏设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20171018", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 28.86, "pe_ttm": 78.3405, "pb": 1.532, "dv_ttm": 0.5198, "total_mv": 399790.365, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [35.0, 30.2, 30.3, 29.8, 26.7, 24.7], "rev_series": [10.6, 16.1, 19.5, 22.5, 25.3, 28.3], "np_series": [0.8, 0.6, 0.6, 0.9, 0.6, 0.6], "roe_series": [8.6, 5.1, 4.5, 6.0, 3.1, 2.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 26.1, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": 5.1, "fcf_ttm": 3.5, "fcf_yield": 8.8, "ocf_yield": 12.7, "gm_median": 29.8, "gm_std": 2.2, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -4.7, "npm_median": 4.2, "roe_median": 4.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 12.4, "fix_assets": 5.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.53, "capex_dep": 3.27, "interest_debt": 6.1, "debt_ebitda": 3.3, "debt_ratio": 41.6, "debt_mv": 15.2, "payout": 37.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 13.2, "np_cagr3": -4.7, "rev_yoy": -16.6, "np_yoy": -12.6, "np_vol": 25.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.3, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["光伏组件装备", 30.0], ["光伏组件自动化生产线", 30.0], ["光伏电池装备", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 25.6, "ret_prev2_year": -50.9, "ret_ytd": -13.6, "ret_pivot": 28.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 17.7, "ret_60": -0.4, "ret_120": -27.4, "ret_250": 2.1, "mdd_250": -58.9, "vol_250": 50.9, "pos_52w": 54.1}, "S": {"duration": 86, "pricing": 51, "hard": 20, "bondness": 33}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 78.3 倍,估值里约 94% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 12%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 12%,毛利率近 5 年中位 29.8%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 8.8%(经营现金流/市值 12.7%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 29.8%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 12%,资本开支/折旧 3.27 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 78.3 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 2%,最大回撤 -59%,年化波动 51%,现价在 52 周高点的 54%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 18% / -0% / -27%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「光伏设备」73 家中位:PE 41.0 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 23% / 分红率 29%。", "金辰股份:PE 比行业中位高 37.3倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 12.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 10.2个百分点。"]}}