{"F": {"ts_code": "603395.SH", "name": "红四方", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "农化制品", "sw3": "复合肥", "ind": "农化制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20241126", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 27.06, "pe_ttm": 209.8387, "pb": 4.9772, "dv_ttm": 0.2365, "total_mv": 703560.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [13.6, 13.7, 11.2, 12.6, 10.7, 9.7], "rev_series": [null, null, 41.7, 39.0, 34.9, 34.3], "np_series": [null, null, 1.2, 1.6, 0.9, 0.5], "roe_series": [22.3, 18.6, 16.8, 18.7, 8.1, 3.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 35.0, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": 1.6, "fcf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_yield": 1.1, "ocf_yield": 2.2, "gm_median": 11.2, "gm_std": 1.4, "gm_stab": 0.87, "gm_chg_2022": -2.4, "npm_median": 2.9, "roe_median": 16.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 42.9, "fix_assets": 10.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.98, "capex_dep": 0.87, "interest_debt": 1.7, "debt_ebitda": 1.1, "debt_ratio": 35.6, "debt_mv": 2.4, "payout": 28.5, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -6.3, "np_cagr3": -24.5, "rev_yoy": 3.7, "np_yoy": -40.3, "np_vol": 29.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["复合肥产品", 45.0], ["氮肥类产品", 3.0], ["氮肥产品", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": -27.6, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -7.2, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 21.8, "ret_60": 16.6, "ret_120": -17.8, "ret_250": -27.8, "mdd_250": -48.8, "vol_250": 40.7, "pos_52w": 69.2}, "S": {"duration": 99, "pricing": 42, "hard": 69, "bondness": 35}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 43%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 11.2%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.4 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 1.1 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 43%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 11.2%,稳定度 87%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.1%(经营现金流/市值 2.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 11.2%,稳定度 87%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 43%,资本开支/折旧 0.87 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 209.8 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -28%,最大回撤 -49%,年化波动 41%,现价在 52 周高点的 69%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 22% / 17% / -18%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「农化制品」62 家中位:PE 20.8 / 股息率 2.0% / 毛利率 19.9% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 45%。", "红四方:PE 比行业中位高 189.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 8.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 7.3个百分点。"]}}