{"F": {"ts_code": "603393.SH", "name": "新天然气", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "公用事业", "sw2": "燃气Ⅱ", "sw3": "燃气Ⅲ", "ind": "燃气Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20160912", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 26.61, "pe_ttm": 19.7574, "pb": 1.1644, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1128054.5793, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [42.6, 49.9, 53.1, 47.5, 48.7, 42.0], "rev_series": [21.1, 26.2, 34.2, 35.2, 37.8, 39.2], "np_series": [3.6, 10.3, 9.2, 10.5, 11.9, 8.1], "roe_series": [13.5, 28.1, 19.0, 16.7, 15.3, 9.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 37.9, "np_ttm": 5.7, "ocf_ttm": 24.6, "fcf_ttm": 12.3, "fcf_yield": 10.9, "ocf_yield": 21.8, "gm_median": 48.7, "gm_std": 3.6, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": 10.5, "npm_median": 40.4, "roe_median": 16.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 10.6, "fix_assets": 23.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.16, "capex_dep": 0.99, "interest_debt": 74.5, "debt_ebitda": 2.8, "debt_ratio": 47.6, "debt_mv": 66.0, "payout": 72.9, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 4.7, "np_cagr3": -4.4, "rev_yoy": -6.6, "np_yoy": -37.9, "np_vol": 78.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 75.0, "earn_yield": 5.1, "consensus_n": 6, "fwd_pe": 10.9, "fwd_pe2": 9.2, "fwd_g1": 81.0, "fwd_g2": 18.0, "peg": 0.61, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["煤层气开采及销售", 73.0], ["天然气供应", 11.0], ["其他产品及服务", 5.0], ["其他主营业务", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": -12.2, "ret_prev2_year": 2.0, "ret_ytd": 0.1, "ret_pivot": -14.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.4, "ret_60": -5.2, "ret_120": -36.9, "ret_250": -13.3, "mdd_250": -50.0, "vol_250": 41.5, "pos_52w": 62.2}, "S": {"duration": 39, "pricing": 68, "hard": 17, "bondness": 49}, "label": "轻资产现金牛", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["固定资产占比 11%,毛利率近 5 年中位 48.7%,自由现金流/市值 10.9%:现金机器,久期短。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 48.7%),硬资产占比 11%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "久期短、无杠杆,加息期相对安全;放水期跑不过科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 10.9%(经营现金流/市值 21.8%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 48.7%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 10.5 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 11%,资本开支/折旧 0.99 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 19.8 倍 粗算,约 75%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -13%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 42%,现价在 52 周高点的 62%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / -5% / -37%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「燃气Ⅱ」30 家中位:PE 22.2 / 股息率 2.5% / 毛利率 15.7% / 固定资产占比 47% / 分红率 50%。", "新天然气:PE 比行业中位低 2.4倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 33.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 36.0个百分点。"]}}