{"F": {"ts_code": "603391.SH", "name": "力聚热能", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "能源及重型设备", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20240731", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 70.48, "pe_ttm": 31.112, "pb": 2.9664, "dv_ttm": 2.1283, "total_mv": 641368.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [53.0, 48.7, 40.5, 41.8, 41.0, 40.0], "rev_series": [null, null, 9.8, 12.0, 10.6, 11.4], "np_series": [null, null, 1.6, 2.7, 2.9, 2.3], "roe_series": [36.5, 29.8, 23.2, 28.3, 18.1, 10.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 10.7, "np_ttm": 2.1, "ocf_ttm": 3.2, "fcf_ttm": 1.8, "fcf_yield": 2.8, "ocf_yield": 4.9, "gm_median": 41.0, "gm_std": 3.2, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -12.5, "npm_median": 22.3, "roe_median": 23.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 19.3, "fix_assets": 6.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.97, "capex_dep": 2.87, "interest_debt": 1.4, "debt_ebitda": 0.5, "debt_ratio": 32.6, "debt_mv": 2.1, "payout": 63.6, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 5.0, "np_cagr3": 11.4, "rev_yoy": -15.8, "np_yoy": -37.6, "np_vol": 29.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 84.0, "earn_yield": 3.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 50.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 62.6, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": 10.2, "ret_pivot": 125.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 16.7, "ret_60": 33.2, "ret_120": -4.4, "ret_250": 78.7, "mdd_250": -35.7, "vol_250": 47.5, "pos_52w": 95.2}, "S": {"duration": 54, "pricing": 56, "hard": 31, "bondness": 52}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 31.1 倍、股息率 2.1%、毛利率近 5 年中位 41.0%、固定资产占比 19%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.5 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 41.0%),硬资产占比 19%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.8%(经营现金流/市值 4.9%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 41.0%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -12.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 19%,资本开支/折旧 2.87 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 31.1 倍 粗算,约 84%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 79%,最大回撤 -36%,年化波动 48%,现价在 52 周高点的 95%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 17% / 33% / -4%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "力聚热能:PE 比行业中位低 11.2倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 14.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 1.3个百分点。"]}}