{"F": {"ts_code": "603385.SH", "name": "惠达卫浴", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "家居用品", "sw3": "卫浴制品", "ind": "家居用品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170405", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.68, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 0.6234, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 216217.72, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [31.3, 27.7, 24.8, 25.3, 26.8, 24.3], "rev_series": [32.2, 38.9, 34.2, 36.0, 34.6, 29.4], "np_series": [3.1, 2.4, 1.3, -2.0, 1.4, -1.9], "roe_series": [8.7, 6.2, 3.3, -5.2, 3.7, -5.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 26.7, "np_ttm": -2.9, "ocf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_ttm": 1.2, "fcf_yield": 5.4, "ocf_yield": 6.5, "gm_median": 25.3, "gm_std": 1.3, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -6.5, "npm_median": 3.6, "roe_median": 3.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 28.4, "fix_assets": 13.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.62, "capex_dep": 0.13, "interest_debt": 0.6, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 24.7, "debt_mv": 3.0, "payout": 30.6, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -4.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -19.4, "np_yoy": -546.3, "np_vol": 156.1, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 94.7, "fwd_pe2": 31.6, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 200.0, "peg": 0.47, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 46.0], ["卫生陶瓷", 28.0], ["五金洁具", 7.0], ["浴室柜", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 9.4, "ret_prev2_year": -20.9, "ret_ytd": -17.0, "ret_pivot": 16.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.4, "ret_60": 5.8, "ret_120": -21.1, "ret_250": -20.1, "mdd_250": -39.3, "vol_250": 30.6, "pos_52w": 76.2}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 50, "hard": 45, "bondness": 34}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -2.9 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 25%,有息负债 1 亿,经营现金流/市值 6.5%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 28%,毛利率近 5 年中位 25.3%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 5.4%(经营现金流/市值 6.5%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 25.3%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 28%,资本开支/折旧 0.13 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -20%,最大回撤 -39%,年化波动 31%,现价在 52 周高点的 76%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / 6% / -21%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「家居用品」77 家中位:PE 28.3 / 股息率 1.7% / 毛利率 28.3% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 50%。", "惠达卫浴:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 3.2个百分点。"]}}