{"F": {"ts_code": "603382.SH", "name": "海阳科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学纤维", "sw3": "锦纶", "ind": "化学纤维", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20250612", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 19.41, "pe_ttm": 34.9473, "pb": 1.9596, "dv_ttm": 1.5456, "total_mv": 351808.9674, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [7.5, 15.0, 10.4, 8.1, 7.4, 9.2], "rev_series": [27.6, 39.5, 40.7, 41.1, 55.4, 42.8], "np_series": [0.3, 2.8, 1.5, 1.2, 1.7, 1.1], "roe_series": [8.3, 45.1, 17.4, 12.4, 14.6, 7.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 41.4, "np_ttm": 1.0, "ocf_ttm": 4.0, "fcf_ttm": -4.4, "fcf_yield": -12.4, "ocf_yield": 11.4, "gm_median": 9.2, "gm_std": 2.7, "gm_stab": 0.71, "gm_chg_2022": 2.9, "npm_median": 3.4, "roe_median": 14.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 40.3, "fix_assets": 17.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.96, "capex_dep": 6.61, "interest_debt": 8.5, "debt_ebitda": 3.2, "debt_ratio": 55.9, "debt_mv": 24.2, "payout": 41.7, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 1.7, "np_cagr3": -9.3, "rev_yoy": -5.8, "np_yoy": -18.0, "np_vol": 293.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 86.0, "earn_yield": 2.9, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["尼龙6切片", 55.0], ["帘子布", 40.0], ["尼龙6丝线", 5.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -39.6, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.8, "ret_60": -2.0, "ret_120": -35.6, "ret_250": -40.0, "mdd_250": -62.1, "vol_250": 45.8, "pos_52w": 46.3}, "S": {"duration": 58, "pricing": 39, "hard": 64, "bondness": 52}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 40%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 9.2%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.9 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 3.2 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 40%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 9.2%,稳定度 71%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -12.4%(经营现金流/市值 11.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 9.2%,稳定度 71%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 40%,资本开支/折旧 6.61 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 34.9 倍 粗算,约 86%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -40%,最大回撤 -62%,年化波动 46%,现价在 52 周高点的 46%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 7% / -2% / -36%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学纤维」27 家中位:PE 32.4 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 15.3% / 固定资产占比 46% / 分红率 35%。", "海阳科技:PE 比行业中位高 2.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.3个百分点。"]}}