{"F": {"ts_code": "603381.SH", "name": "永臻股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "光伏设备", "sw3": "光伏辅材", "ind": "光伏设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20240626", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 15.01, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.0705, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 356121.7063, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [13.6, 10.8, 9.0, 10.7, 5.1, 2.0], "rev_series": [null, null, 51.8, 53.9, 81.8, 107.2], "np_series": [null, null, 2.5, 3.7, 2.7, -2.2], "roe_series": [34.3, 11.0, 14.4, 18.4, 9.0, -6.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 95.7, "np_ttm": -2.3, "ocf_ttm": -21.3, "fcf_ttm": -23.9, "fcf_yield": -67.2, "ocf_yield": -59.7, "gm_median": 9.0, "gm_std": 3.4, "gm_stab": 0.62, "gm_chg_2022": -4.5, "npm_median": 3.3, "roe_median": 11.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 28.0, "fix_assets": 33.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.2, "pb_calc": 1.07, "capex_dep": 0.94, "interest_debt": 77.2, "debt_ebitda": 55.6, "debt_ratio": 72.4, "debt_mv": 216.8, "payout": 43.4, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 27.4, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -20.1, "np_yoy": -23.3, "np_vol": 118.5, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["光伏边框产品", 46.0], ["其他业务", 3.0], ["其他产品", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": -7.0, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -24.4, "ret_pivot": -20.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.6, "ret_60": -11.4, "ret_120": -43.2, "ret_250": -38.8, "mdd_250": -57.1, "vol_250": 46.8, "pos_52w": 48.0}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 30, "hard": 45, "bondness": 30}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -2.3 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 72%,有息负债 77 亿,经营现金流/市值 -59.7%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 28%,毛利率近 5 年中位 9.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -67.2%(经营现金流/市值 -59.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 9.0%,稳定度 62%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.5 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 28%,资本开支/折旧 0.94 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -39%,最大回撤 -57%,年化波动 47%,现价在 52 周高点的 48%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / -11% / -43%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「光伏设备」73 家中位:PE 41.0 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 23% / 分红率 29%。", "永臻股份:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 8.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 5.4个百分点。"]}}