{"F": {"ts_code": "603377.SH", "name": "ST东时", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "社会服务", "sw2": "教育", "sw3": "培训教育", "ind": "教育", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20160205", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.01, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": null, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 217572.2514, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [44.5, 51.5, 42.7, 35.4, 26.7, 27.3], "rev_series": [8.5, 12.0, 10.0, 10.4, 8.1, 6.2], "np_series": [1.6, 1.5, -0.6, -3.6, -9.0, -7.5], "roe_series": [7.9, 6.0, -2.8, -18.5, -65.7, -148.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.9, "np_ttm": -8.3, "ocf_ttm": 1.3, "fcf_ttm": 1.2, "fcf_yield": 5.5, "ocf_yield": 5.8, "gm_median": 35.4, "gm_std": 9.4, "gm_stab": 0.73, "gm_chg_2022": -1.8, "npm_median": -36.0, "roe_median": -18.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 46.5, "fix_assets": 15.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": null, "capex_dep": 0.07, "interest_debt": 13.9, "debt_ebitda": 10.7, "debt_ratio": 93.7, "debt_mv": 64.0, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -14.8, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -11.0, "np_yoy": -83.0, "np_vol": 184.3, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["驾驶培训收入", 32.0], ["驾驶员培训", 32.0], ["飞行培训收入", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 56.7, "ret_prev2_year": -43.0, "ret_ytd": -19.9, "ret_pivot": 113.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.4, "ret_60": -15.0, "ret_120": -19.7, "ret_250": -20.2, "mdd_250": -42.0, "vol_250": 39.7, "pos_52w": 66.2}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 49, "hard": 74, "bondness": 35}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -8.3 亿,近 5 年亏损 4 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 94%,有息负债 14 亿,经营现金流/市值 5.8%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 46%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 35.4%,稳定度 73%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 5.5%(经营现金流/市值 5.8%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 35.4%,稳定度 73%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 46%,资本开支/折旧 0.07 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -20%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 40%,现价在 52 周高点的 66%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / -15% / -20%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「教育」17 家中位:PE 96.5 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 43.0% / 固定资产占比 6% / 分红率 49%。", "ST东时:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 7.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 40.6个百分点。"]}}