{"F": {"ts_code": "603376.SH", "name": "大明电子", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "汽车电子电气系统", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20251106", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 27.94, "pe_ttm": 67.2762, "pb": 6.5268, "dv_ttm": 0.5369, "total_mv": 1117602.794, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [25.2, 24.9, 20.9, 20.7, 21.1, 17.3], "rev_series": [null, null, 17.1, 21.5, 27.3, 31.1], "np_series": [null, null, 1.5, 2.1, 2.8, 2.5], "roe_series": [42.8, 34.9, 34.4, 30.3, 30.5, 17.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 29.7, "np_ttm": 1.7, "ocf_ttm": 3.9, "fcf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_yield": 0.4, "ocf_yield": 3.5, "gm_median": 20.9, "gm_std": 2.4, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": -4.3, "npm_median": 8.8, "roe_median": 30.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 37.3, "fix_assets": 10.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 6.53, "capex_dep": 2.6, "interest_debt": 4.7, "debt_ebitda": 1.0, "debt_ratio": 40.2, "debt_mv": 4.2, "payout": 22.1, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 21.9, "np_cagr3": 18.1, "rev_yoy": -10.2, "np_yoy": -71.5, "np_vol": 23.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["汽车零部件", 50.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -24.0, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.8, "ret_60": 8.5, "ret_120": -22.9, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": -64.0, "vol_250": 47.4, "pos_52w": 43.5}, "S": {"duration": 81, "pricing": 46, "hard": 60, "bondness": 14}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 67.3 倍、股息率 0.5%、毛利率近 5 年中位 20.9%、固定资产占比 37%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 37%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 20.9%,稳定度 88%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.4%(经营现金流/市值 3.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 20.9%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 37%,资本开支/折旧 2.60 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 67.3 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "大明电子:PE 比行业中位高 37.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 11.8个百分点。"]}}