{"F": {"ts_code": "603369.SH", "name": "今世缘", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "白酒Ⅱ", "sw3": "白酒Ⅲ", "ind": "白酒Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20140703", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 30.9, "pe_ttm": 15.6823, "pb": 2.2467, "dv_ttm": 3.8835, "total_mv": 3852612.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [71.1, 74.6, 76.6, 78.3, 74.7, 74.2], "rev_series": [51.2, 64.1, 78.8, 101.0, 115.4, 101.8], "np_series": [15.7, 20.3, 25.0, 31.4, 34.1, 26.0], "roe_series": [20.3, 23.1, 24.6, 25.8, 23.7, 16.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 96.7, "np_ttm": 24.6, "ocf_ttm": 20.5, "fcf_ttm": 6.1, "fcf_yield": 1.6, "ocf_yield": 5.3, "gm_median": 74.7, "gm_std": 1.5, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": 5.5, "npm_median": 31.1, "roe_median": 23.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 31.3, "fix_assets": 81.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.25, "capex_dep": 4.97, "interest_debt": 16.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.5, "debt_ratio": 33.7, "debt_mv": 4.2, "payout": 43.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 8.9, "np_cagr3": 1.3, "rev_yoy": -7.4, "np_yoy": -6.6, "np_vol": 19.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 68.0, "earn_yield": 6.4, "consensus_n": 33, "fwd_pe": 14.8, "fwd_pe2": 13.9, "fwd_g1": 6.0, "fwd_g2": 6.0, "peg": 2.47, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["特A+类", 55.0], ["特A类", 34.0], ["A类产品", 3.0], ["A类", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": -21.6, "ret_prev2_year": -5.6, "ret_ytd": -8.0, "ret_pivot": -13.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 13.4, "ret_60": 26.8, "ret_120": 9.6, "ret_250": -28.3, "mdd_250": -45.3, "vol_250": 34.5, "pos_52w": 71.3}, "S": {"duration": 32, "pricing": 83, "hard": 50, "bondness": 51}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["现金流红利", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 81 亿,占总资产 31%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 74.7%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 5.5 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 1.6%,股息率 3.9%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 68%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 31%)和定价权(毛利率 74.7% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.6%(经营现金流/市值 5.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 74.7%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 5.5 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 31%,资本开支/折旧 4.97 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 15.7 倍 粗算,约 68%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -28%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 34%,现价在 52 周高点的 71%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 13% / 27% / 10%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「白酒Ⅱ」19 家中位:PE 26.1 / 股息率 3.7% / 毛利率 74.5% / 固定资产占比 27% / 分红率 60%。", "今世缘:PE 比行业中位低 10.4倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 4.2个百分点。"]}}