{"F": {"ts_code": "603363.SH", "name": "傲农生物", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "农林牧渔", "sw2": "饲料", "sw3": "畜禽饲料", "ind": "饲料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170926", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.28, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.0259, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 895788.3032, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [17.3, 1.4, 4.4, -4.7, 4.5, 6.3], "rev_series": [115.2, 180.4, 216.1, 194.6, 87.6, 84.7], "np_series": [5.7, -15.2, -10.4, -36.5, 5.8, 0.8], "roe_series": [32.1, -75.1, -54.6, -473.3, 72.3, 2.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 90.4, "np_ttm": -4.7, "ocf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_yield": -0.3, "ocf_yield": 1.6, "gm_median": 4.4, "gm_std": 3.9, "gm_stab": 0.12, "gm_chg_2022": -12.9, "npm_median": -5.7, "roe_median": -54.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 38.0, "fix_assets": 33.5, "goodwill_ratio": 3.8, "pb_calc": 3.03, "capex_dep": 0.42, "interest_debt": 23.8, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 62.1, "debt_mv": 26.6, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -26.8, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 14.3, "np_yoy": -152.6, "np_vol": 177.1, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["饲料及动保分部", 41.0], ["饲养分部", 9.0], ["食品分部", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 30.2, "ret_prev2_year": 75.0, "ret_ytd": -28.9, "ret_pivot": 192.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 15.9, "ret_60": 13.1, "ret_120": -24.2, "ret_250": -13.0, "mdd_250": -56.5, "vol_250": 49.5, "pos_52w": 54.3}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 10, "hard": 61, "bondness": 23}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 38%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 4.4%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -12.9 个百分点;资产负债率 62%,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 38%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 4.4%,稳定度 12%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.3%(经营现金流/市值 1.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 4.4%,稳定度 12%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -12.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 38%,资本开支/折旧 0.42 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -13%,最大回撤 -56%,年化波动 50%,现价在 52 周高点的 54%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 16% / 13% / -24%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「饲料」19 家中位:PE 44.7 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 9.9% / 固定资产占比 35% / 分红率 40%。", "傲农生物:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 2.6个百分点。"]}}