{"F": {"ts_code": "603348.SH", "name": "文灿股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "其他汽车零部件", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20180426", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.71, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.2092, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 462595.9612, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [23.6, 18.5, 18.5, 15.0, 12.7, 10.8], "rev_series": [26.0, 41.1, 52.3, 51.0, 62.5, 59.1], "np_series": [0.8, 1.0, 2.4, 0.5, 1.2, -3.5], "roe_series": [3.5, 3.7, 8.2, 1.6, 3.1, -8.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 59.1, "np_ttm": -5.8, "ocf_ttm": 3.5, "fcf_ttm": -4.1, "fcf_yield": -9.0, "ocf_yield": 7.6, "gm_median": 15.0, "gm_std": 3.1, "gm_stab": 0.79, "gm_chg_2022": -5.1, "npm_median": 1.8, "roe_median": 3.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 49.9, "fix_assets": 47.3, "goodwill_ratio": 2.9, "pb_calc": 1.21, "capex_dep": 1.52, "interest_debt": 30.0, "debt_ebitda": 5.1, "debt_ratio": 59.6, "debt_mv": 64.7, "payout": 73.2, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 4.2, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -0.1, "np_yoy": -1746.8, "np_vol": 199.1, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": 43.9, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["汽车压铸件", 48.0], ["汽车件", 48.0], ["非汽车类压铸件", 1.0], ["非汽车件", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": -18.1, "ret_prev2_year": -38.9, "ret_ytd": -23.6, "ret_pivot": -26.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.4, "ret_60": 1.4, "ret_120": -26.8, "ret_250": -33.0, "mdd_250": -45.7, "vol_250": 29.6, "pos_52w": 62.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 39, "hard": 80, "bondness": 56}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 50%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 15.0%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.1 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 5.1 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 50%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 15.0%,稳定度 79%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -9.0%(经营现金流/市值 7.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 15.0%,稳定度 79%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 50%,资本开支/折旧 1.52 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -33%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 30%,现价在 52 周高点的 62%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / 1% / -27%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "文灿股份:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 24.4个百分点。"]}}