{"F": {"ts_code": "603345.SH", "name": "安井食品", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "食品加工", "sw3": "预加工食品", "ind": "食品加工", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170222", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 76.63, "pe_ttm": 16.9657, "pb": 1.6129, "dv_ttm": 3.7239, "total_mv": 2553992.8407, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [25.7, 22.1, 22.0, 23.2, 23.3, 21.6], "rev_series": [69.7, 92.7, 121.8, 140.5, 151.3, 161.9], "np_series": [6.0, 6.8, 11.0, 14.8, 14.8, 13.6], "roe_series": [18.8, 15.6, 13.1, 12.2, 11.6, 9.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 178.5, "np_ttm": 15.1, "ocf_ttm": 29.6, "fcf_ttm": 21.7, "fcf_yield": 8.5, "ocf_yield": 11.6, "gm_median": 22.1, "gm_std": 0.7, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": -3.7, "npm_median": 9.2, "roe_median": 12.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 27.3, "fix_assets": 56.2, "goodwill_ratio": 3.4, "pb_calc": 1.61, "capex_dep": 1.5, "interest_debt": 9.3, "debt_ebitda": 0.3, "debt_ratio": 21.2, "debt_mv": 3.6, "payout": 65.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 9.9, "np_cagr3": 7.3, "rev_yoy": 21.9, "np_yoy": 21.6, "np_vol": 25.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 71.0, "earn_yield": 5.9, "consensus_n": 40, "fwd_pe": 14.9, "fwd_pe2": 12.9, "fwd_g1": 14.0, "fwd_g2": 16.0, "peg": 0.93, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 39.0], ["速冻调制食品涮烤等产品", 20.0], ["速冻调制食品", 20.0], ["速冻菜肴制品", 13.0]], "ret_prev_year": 1.6, "ret_prev2_year": -20.7, "ret_ytd": -1.6, "ret_pivot": 18.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -10.1, "ret_60": -12.0, "ret_120": -10.2, "ret_250": 3.3, "mdd_250": -30.9, "vol_250": 31.5, "pos_52w": 70.7}, "S": {"duration": 35, "pricing": 50, "hard": 44, "bondness": 56}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["现金流红利"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 22%,PE TTM 17.0 倍 但前瞻 PE 14.9 倍,PEG 0.93。", "自由现金流 21.7 亿(正),次年预期增速 16%(40 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 27%,毛利率近 5 年中位 22.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 8.5%(经营现金流/市值 11.6%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 22.1%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 27%,资本开支/折旧 1.50 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 17.0 倍 粗算,约 71%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 3%,最大回撤 -31%,年化波动 32%,现价在 52 周高点的 71%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -10% / -12% / -10%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「食品加工」27 家中位:PE 29.8 / 股息率 2.4% / 毛利率 23.4% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 62%。", "安井食品:PE 比行业中位低 12.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.2个百分点。"]}}