{"F": {"ts_code": "603341.SH", "name": "龙旗科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "消费电子", "sw3": "消费电子零部件及组装", "ind": "消费电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20240301", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 37.31, "pe_ttm": 41.0165, "pb": 2.6678, "dv_ttm": 1.3366, "total_mv": 1949785.5286, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [8.2, 7.5, 8.5, 10.0, 6.1, 8.8], "rev_series": [null, null, 293.4, 271.9, 463.8, 421.2], "np_series": [null, null, 5.6, 6.1, 5.0, 5.9], "roe_series": [23.5, 24.6, 18.4, 17.3, 10.6, 10.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 408.8, "np_ttm": 4.8, "ocf_ttm": 6.0, "fcf_ttm": -6.8, "fcf_yield": -3.5, "ocf_yield": 3.1, "gm_median": 8.5, "gm_std": 1.3, "gm_stab": 0.85, "gm_chg_2022": 0.3, "npm_median": 1.9, "roe_median": 17.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 10.7, "fix_assets": 32.6, "goodwill_ratio": 1.0, "pb_calc": 2.67, "capex_dep": 3.01, "interest_debt": 58.0, "debt_ebitda": 6.1, "debt_ratio": 75.4, "debt_mv": 29.8, "payout": 39.4, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 12.8, "np_cagr3": 1.4, "rev_yoy": -6.3, "np_yoy": -30.9, "np_vol": 34.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 88.0, "earn_yield": 2.4, "consensus_n": 10, "fwd_pe": 26.2, "fwd_pe2": 18.0, "fwd_g1": 57.0, "fwd_g2": 45.0, "peg": 0.58, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["智能手机", 33.0], ["AIoT产品", 10.0], ["平板电脑", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": -8.7, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -10.7, "ret_pivot": 8.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.7, "ret_60": 5.4, "ret_120": -8.9, "ret_250": -17.6, "mdd_250": -33.8, "vol_250": 45.2, "pos_52w": 72.7}, "S": {"duration": 64, "pricing": 42, "hard": 17, "bondness": 44}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 41.0 倍、股息率 1.3%、毛利率近 5 年中位 8.5%、固定资产占比 11%、有息负债/EBITDA 6.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 11%,毛利率近 5 年中位 8.5%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.5%(经营现金流/市值 3.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 8.5%,稳定度 85%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 11%,资本开支/折旧 3.01 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 41.0 倍 粗算,约 88%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -18%,最大回撤 -34%,年化波动 45%,现价在 52 周高点的 73%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / 5% / -9%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「消费电子」100 家中位:PE 46.5 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 20.3% / 固定资产占比 25% / 分红率 44%。", "龙旗科技:PE 比行业中位低 5.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 11.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 14.1个百分点。"]}}