{"F": {"ts_code": "603333.SH", "name": "福华尚纬", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电网设备", "sw3": "线缆部件及其他", "ind": "电网设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20120507", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.92, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.5956, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 739200.208, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [17.8, 16.6, 18.6, 17.6, 18.6, 15.0], "rev_series": [20.3, 23.4, 20.2, 22.1, 17.3, 14.1], "np_series": [0.2, -0.3, 0.2, 0.2, 0.2, -0.5], "roe_series": [1.1, -1.7, 0.9, 1.0, 0.8, -2.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 19.5, "np_ttm": -0.1, "ocf_ttm": -1.8, "fcf_ttm": -7.4, "fcf_yield": -10.0, "ocf_yield": -2.4, "gm_median": 17.6, "gm_std": 1.4, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": 0.8, "npm_median": 0.9, "roe_median": 0.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 38.7, "fix_assets": 20.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.6, "capex_dep": 8.49, "interest_debt": 20.8, "debt_ebitda": 15.4, "debt_ratio": 51.9, "debt_mv": 28.1, "payout": 33.3, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -11.3, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 97.8, "np_yoy": 133.5, "np_vol": 202.3, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["特种电缆", 39.0], ["普通电缆", 5.0], ["其它电缆", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 50.2, "ret_prev2_year": -2.3, "ret_ytd": 18.8, "ret_pivot": 215.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.3, "ret_60": 11.5, "ret_120": 14.8, "ret_250": 20.1, "mdd_250": -26.4, "vol_250": 44.2, "pos_52w": 96.2}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 49, "hard": 62, "bondness": 47}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 39%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 17.6%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.8 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 15.4 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 39%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 17.6%,稳定度 92%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -10.0%(经营现金流/市值 -2.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.6%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 39%,资本开支/折旧 8.49 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 20%,最大回撤 -26%,年化波动 44%,现价在 52 周高点的 96%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / 12% / 15%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电网设备」141 家中位:PE 43.5 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 23.5% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 40%。", "福华尚纬:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 23.8个百分点。"]}}