{"F": {"ts_code": "603330.SH", "name": "天洋新材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "塑料", "sw3": "其他塑料制品", "ind": "塑料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170213", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.54, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.461, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 456037.9744, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [30.3, 25.6, 14.9, 11.9, 13.6, 21.9], "rev_series": [7.0, 10.7, 14.3, 13.3, 13.2, 8.6], "np_series": [0.5, 1.1, -0.6, -0.9, -2.1, -2.4], "roe_series": [8.2, 12.7, -5.6, -6.8, -12.8, -17.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 7.3, "np_ttm": -2.3, "ocf_ttm": 2.0, "fcf_ttm": 1.7, "fcf_yield": 3.8, "ocf_yield": 4.4, "gm_median": 14.9, "gm_std": 5.3, "gm_stab": 0.65, "gm_chg_2022": -15.4, "npm_median": -7.1, "roe_median": -6.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 48.5, "fix_assets": 8.9, "goodwill_ratio": 3.0, "pb_calc": 3.46, "capex_dep": 0.3, "interest_debt": 2.3, "debt_ebitda": 2.1, "debt_ratio": 27.6, "debt_mv": 5.1, "payout": null, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -15.5, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -28.0, "np_yoy": 158.4, "np_vol": 93.8, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["热熔胶", 31.0], ["反应型胶黏剂", 12.0], ["热熔墙布、窗帘", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 14.2, "ret_prev2_year": -15.5, "ret_ytd": 45.6, "ret_pivot": 139.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 37.8, "ret_60": 19.2, "ret_120": 43.2, "ret_250": 29.8, "mdd_250": -36.2, "vol_250": 58.0, "pos_52w": 89.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 34, "hard": 78, "bondness": 26}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 48%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 14.9%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -15.4 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 2.1 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 48%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 14.9%,稳定度 65%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.8%(经营现金流/市值 4.4%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 14.9%,稳定度 65%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -15.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 48%,资本开支/折旧 0.30 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 30%,最大回撤 -36%,年化波动 58%,现价在 52 周高点的 90%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 38% / 19% / 43%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「塑料」77 家中位:PE 41.1 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 16.9% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 40%。", "天洋新材:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 16.6个百分点。"]}}