{"F": {"ts_code": "603327.SH", "name": "福蓉科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "消费电子", "sw3": "消费电子零部件及组装", "ind": "消费电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20190523", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.19, "pe_ttm": 66.2351, "pb": 3.9829, "dv_ttm": 1.1931, "total_mv": 960777.1886, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [29.8, 23.6, 22.8, 20.4, 11.3, 11.2], "rev_series": [16.5, 19.3, 22.5, 19.1, 24.0, 26.5], "np_series": [3.2, 2.9, 3.9, 2.8, 1.6, 1.2], "roe_series": [23.0, 18.7, 22.2, 14.4, 7.7, 5.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 29.3, "np_ttm": 1.5, "ocf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_ttm": -1.7, "fcf_yield": -1.8, "ocf_yield": 0.5, "gm_median": 20.4, "gm_std": 5.5, "gm_stab": 0.73, "gm_chg_2022": -7.0, "npm_median": 14.6, "roe_median": 14.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 47.3, "fix_assets": 17.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.98, "capex_dep": 2.78, "interest_debt": 9.3, "debt_ebitda": 3.4, "debt_ratio": 34.6, "debt_mv": 9.7, "payout": 92.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 5.6, "np_cagr3": -32.9, "rev_yoy": 23.5, "np_yoy": 64.4, "np_vol": 26.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["消费电子铝型材", 15.0], ["消费电子材", 15.0], ["新能源汽车铝型材", 14.0]], "ret_prev_year": 19.0, "ret_prev2_year": 2.6, "ret_ytd": -14.5, "ret_pivot": 14.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.2, "ret_60": -6.2, "ret_120": -5.8, "ret_250": -10.1, "mdd_250": -46.9, "vol_250": 50.8, "pos_52w": 63.7}, "S": {"duration": 81, "pricing": 40, "hard": 76, "bondness": 64}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 66.2 倍、股息率 1.2%、毛利率近 5 年中位 20.4%、固定资产占比 47%、有息负债/EBITDA 3.4 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 47%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 20.4%,稳定度 73%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.8%(经营现金流/市值 0.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 20.4%,稳定度 73%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 47%,资本开支/折旧 2.78 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 66.2 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -10%,最大回撤 -47%,年化波动 51%,现价在 52 周高点的 64%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / -6% / -6%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「消费电子」100 家中位:PE 46.5 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 20.3% / 固定资产占比 25% / 分红率 44%。", "福蓉科技:PE 比行业中位高 19.7倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 22.5个百分点。"]}}