{"F": {"ts_code": "603321.SH", "name": "梅轮电梯", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "楼宇设备", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170915", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.47, "pe_ttm": 63.7799, "pb": 1.5604, "dv_ttm": 0.7689, "total_mv": 225171.8515, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [24.6, 23.5, 21.6, 27.2, 28.7, 21.7], "rev_series": [7.3, 10.6, 10.2, 9.6, 8.1, 6.8], "np_series": [0.5, 0.4, 0.5, 0.8, 1.3, 0.3], "roe_series": [4.7, 4.0, 4.1, 7.0, 11.1, 2.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.8, "np_ttm": 0.4, "ocf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_ttm": -0.0, "fcf_yield": -0.2, "ocf_yield": 1.1, "gm_median": 23.5, "gm_std": 2.9, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": -3.1, "npm_median": 4.5, "roe_median": 4.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 18.5, "fix_assets": 3.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.56, "capex_dep": 0.68, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 29.2, "debt_mv": 0.5, "payout": 50.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -12.6, "np_cagr3": -11.5, "rev_yoy": -0.6, "np_yoy": 17.2, "np_vol": 55.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 36.0], ["直梯,扶梯,人行道,配件", 28.0], ["扶梯、人行道", 28.0], ["安装维保", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 18.4, "ret_prev2_year": -17.1, "ret_ytd": -19.0, "ret_pivot": 20.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.9, "ret_60": 3.4, "ret_120": -19.1, "ret_250": -22.7, "mdd_250": -36.3, "vol_250": 30.7, "pos_52w": 75.5}, "S": {"duration": 80, "pricing": 48, "hard": 30, "bondness": 43}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 63.8 倍,估值里约 92% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 18%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 18%,毛利率近 5 年中位 23.5%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.2%(经营现金流/市值 1.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 23.5%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 18%,资本开支/折旧 0.68 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 63.8 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -23%,最大回撤 -36%,年化波动 31%,现价在 52 周高点的 76%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / 3% / -19%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "梅轮电梯:PE 比行业中位高 21.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.5个百分点。"]}}