{"F": {"ts_code": "603319.SH", "name": "美湖股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "底盘与发动机系统", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20161130", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 29.16, "pe_ttm": 171.6946, "pb": 4.0018, "dv_ttm": 0.3326, "total_mv": 988960.5252, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [27.8, 25.1, 25.1, 26.3, 23.9, 19.6], "rev_series": [14.1, 16.2, 16.2, 19.1, 19.8, 22.5], "np_series": [1.7, 1.9, 1.7, 2.2, 1.7, 1.0], "roe_series": [15.9, 13.9, 11.3, 13.2, 8.7, 4.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 23.4, "np_ttm": 0.6, "ocf_ttm": 2.7, "fcf_ttm": -1.6, "fcf_yield": -1.7, "ocf_yield": 2.8, "gm_median": 25.1, "gm_std": 2.3, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -2.7, "npm_median": 10.7, "roe_median": 11.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 37.8, "fix_assets": 16.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.7, "pb_calc": 4.0, "capex_dep": 3.06, "interest_debt": 9.7, "debt_ebitda": 3.6, "debt_ratio": 41.2, "debt_mv": 9.8, "payout": 31.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 11.4, "np_cagr3": -15.1, "rev_yoy": 8.5, "np_yoy": -45.8, "np_vol": 23.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.6, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 51.2, "fwd_pe2": 42.5, "fwd_g1": 236.0, "fwd_g2": 20.0, "peg": 2.56, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 35.0], ["柴油机机油泵", 16.0], ["机油泵产品", 16.0], ["车用零部件", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 163.9, "ret_prev2_year": 15.2, "ret_ytd": -20.1, "ret_pivot": 174.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.6, "ret_60": -14.3, "ret_120": -18.2, "ret_250": -22.0, "mdd_250": -53.4, "vol_250": 60.8, "pos_52w": 64.3}, "S": {"duration": 99, "pricing": 50, "hard": 60, "bondness": 32}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 171.7 倍、股息率 0.3%、毛利率近 5 年中位 25.1%、固定资产占比 38%、有息负债/EBITDA 3.6 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 38%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 25.1%,稳定度 91%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.7%(经营现金流/市值 2.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 25.1%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 38%,资本开支/折旧 3.06 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 171.7 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -22%,最大回撤 -53%,年化波动 61%,现价在 52 周高点的 64%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 9% / -14% / -18%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "美湖股份:PE 比行业中位高 141.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 3.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 12.3个百分点。"]}}