{"F": {"ts_code": "603318.SH", "name": "水发燃气", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "公用事业", "sw2": "燃气Ⅱ", "sw3": "燃气Ⅲ", "ind": "燃气Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20150424", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.34, "pe_ttm": 229.4863, "pb": 2.7022, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 518064.7688, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [12.1, 11.5, 14.4, 15.2, 17.6, 15.1], "rev_series": [11.3, 26.1, 34.3, 32.0, 25.9, 25.5], "np_series": [0.2, 0.4, 0.4, 0.7, 1.0, -0.8], "roe_series": [2.5, 4.1, 3.4, 4.5, 6.6, -5.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 24.8, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 1.2, "fcf_ttm": -0.6, "fcf_yield": -1.2, "ocf_yield": 2.4, "gm_median": 15.1, "gm_std": 1.9, "gm_stab": 0.87, "gm_chg_2022": 2.3, "npm_median": 3.7, "roe_median": 4.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 37.0, "fix_assets": 17.0, "goodwill_ratio": 22.4, "pb_calc": 2.7, "capex_dep": 1.69, "interest_debt": 15.6, "debt_ebitda": 4.4, "debt_ratio": 48.9, "debt_mv": 30.1, "payout": 33.9, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -9.4, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -6.1, "np_yoy": 166.1, "np_vol": 87.5, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 43.0], ["燃气运营", 25.0], ["LNG业务", 10.0], ["LNG", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": -6.1, "ret_prev2_year": -3.7, "ret_ytd": 39.4, "ret_pivot": 67.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.6, "ret_60": -5.2, "ret_120": 8.9, "ret_250": 35.8, "mdd_250": -46.6, "vol_250": 63.6, "pos_52w": 64.2}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 47, "hard": 59, "bondness": 45}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["商誉占比高"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 229.5 倍、股息率 —、毛利率近 5 年中位 15.1%、固定资产占比 37%、有息负债/EBITDA 4.4 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 37%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 15.1%,稳定度 87%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.2%(经营现金流/市值 2.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 15.1%,稳定度 87%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 37%,资本开支/折旧 1.69 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 229.5 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 36%,最大回撤 -47%,年化波动 64%,现价在 52 周高点的 64%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / -5% / 9%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「燃气Ⅱ」30 家中位:PE 22.2 / 股息率 2.5% / 毛利率 15.7% / 固定资产占比 47% / 分红率 50%。", "水发燃气:PE 比行业中位高 207.3倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 9.6个百分点。"]}}