{"F": {"ts_code": "603315.SH", "name": "福鞍股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "环保", "sw2": "环境治理", "sw3": "大气治理", "ind": "环境治理", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20150424", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.71, "pe_ttm": 140.8403, "pb": 2.1698, "dv_ttm": 0.3843, "total_mv": 375148.9373, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [23.3, 24.1, 19.1, 19.4, 18.1, 14.3], "rev_series": [8.9, 9.5, 10.5, 10.2, 12.4, 12.8], "np_series": [1.0, 0.8, 0.4, 0.7, 0.9, 0.5], "roe_series": [7.4, 5.4, 2.9, 4.9, 5.5, 2.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 12.0, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_ttm": 1.2, "fcf_yield": 3.2, "ocf_yield": 2.5, "gm_median": 19.1, "gm_std": 3.1, "gm_stab": 0.84, "gm_chg_2022": -4.2, "npm_median": 7.0, "roe_median": 4.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 12.7, "fix_assets": 4.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.17, "capex_dep": -0.49, "interest_debt": 7.8, "debt_ebitda": 7.4, "debt_ratio": 46.0, "debt_mv": 20.9, "payout": 29.1, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 6.6, "np_cagr3": 5.7, "rev_yoy": -12.4, "np_yoy": -37.8, "np_vol": 47.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.7, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 39.0, "fwd_pe2": 24.4, "fwd_g1": 261.0, "fwd_g2": 60.0, "peg": 0.65, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["工程总承包", 15.0], ["火电设备铸件", 15.0], ["水电设备铸件", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 46.2, "ret_prev2_year": -26.1, "ret_ytd": -24.4, "ret_pivot": 40.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.6, "ret_60": -28.8, "ret_120": -28.1, "ret_250": -15.3, "mdd_250": -46.0, "vol_250": 53.0, "pos_52w": 59.0}, "S": {"duration": 97, "pricing": 43, "hard": 20, "bondness": 41}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 140.8 倍,估值里约 96% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 13%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(1 篇研报)前瞻 PE 39.0 倍,次年 24.4 倍,PEG 0.65。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 13%,毛利率近 5 年中位 19.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.2%(经营现金流/市值 2.5%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 19.1%,稳定度 84%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 13%,资本开支/折旧 -0.49 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 140.8 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -15%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 53%,现价在 52 周高点的 59%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / -29% / -28%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「环境治理」107 家中位:PE 26.1 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 27.6% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 38%。", "福鞍股份:PE 比行业中位高 114.7倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 8.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.2个百分点。"]}}