{"F": {"ts_code": "603311.SH", "name": "金海高科", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "家用电器", "sw2": "家电零部件Ⅱ", "sw3": "家电零部件Ⅲ", "ind": "家电零部件Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20150518", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 26.7, "pe_ttm": 102.3384, "pb": 4.7896, "dv_ttm": 0.4431, "total_mv": 629810.013, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [32.0, 27.1, 22.3, 25.2, 23.1, 22.5], "rev_series": [6.9, 7.6, 7.9, 7.3, 7.9, 8.6], "np_series": [0.9, 0.7, 0.8, 0.5, 0.7, 0.8], "roe_series": [11.1, 8.3, 7.3, 4.0, 5.1, 5.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 8.4, "np_ttm": 0.6, "ocf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_yield": 1.0, "ocf_yield": 1.5, "gm_median": 23.1, "gm_std": 1.9, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -9.7, "npm_median": 9.2, "roe_median": 5.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 15.4, "fix_assets": 2.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.79, "capex_dep": 0.68, "interest_debt": 1.5, "debt_ebitda": 1.4, "debt_ratio": 25.7, "debt_mv": 2.3, "payout": 38.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 2.7, "np_cagr3": 1.3, "rev_yoy": -3.9, "np_yoy": -27.6, "np_vol": 25.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.0, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 68.5, "fwd_pe2": 54.5, "fwd_g1": 49.0, "fwd_g2": 26.0, "peg": 2.63, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营产品", 49.0], ["其他", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 55.5, "ret_prev2_year": -2.7, "ret_ytd": 76.1, "ret_pivot": 248.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -9.6, "ret_60": -31.2, "ret_120": 70.9, "ret_250": 129.6, "mdd_250": -45.2, "vol_250": 57.4, "pos_52w": 65.4}, "S": {"duration": 92, "pricing": 48, "hard": 25, "bondness": 37}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 102.3 倍,估值里约 95% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 15%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(1 篇研报)前瞻 PE 68.5 倍,次年 54.5 倍,PEG 2.63。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 15%,毛利率近 5 年中位 23.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.0%(经营现金流/市值 1.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 23.1%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 15%,资本开支/折旧 0.68 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 102.3 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 130%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 57%,现价在 52 周高点的 65%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -10% / -31% / 71%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「家电零部件Ⅱ」34 家中位:PE 50.3 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 18.8% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 39%。", "金海高科:PE 比行业中位高 52.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 4.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.2个百分点。"]}}