{"F": {"ts_code": "603308.SH", "name": "应流股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "金属制品", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20140122", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 43.82, "pe_ttm": 83.6426, "pb": 6.1531, "dv_ttm": 0.3404, "total_mv": 3191997.3498, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [38.4, 36.4, 36.7, 36.2, 34.2, 35.8], "rev_series": [18.3, 20.4, 22.0, 24.1, 25.1, 29.2], "np_series": [2.0, 2.3, 4.0, 3.0, 2.9, 3.5], "roe_series": [5.5, 6.0, 9.8, 6.9, 6.3, 7.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 33.6, "np_ttm": 3.8, "ocf_ttm": 2.6, "fcf_ttm": -4.8, "fcf_yield": -1.5, "ocf_yield": 0.8, "gm_median": 36.2, "gm_std": 0.9, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": -1.7, "npm_median": 10.7, "roe_median": 6.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 44.9, "fix_assets": 64.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 6.04, "capex_dep": 2.71, "interest_debt": 65.6, "debt_ebitda": 7.3, "debt_ratio": 60.4, "debt_mv": 20.6, "payout": 27.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 9.9, "np_cagr3": -4.6, "rev_yoy": 32.2, "np_yoy": 17.5, "np_vol": 33.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.2, "consensus_n": 16, "fwd_pe": 51.7, "fwd_pe2": 34.4, "fwd_g1": 62.0, "fwd_g2": 50.0, "peg": 1.03, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["机械装备构件", 30.0], ["泵及阀门零件", 19.0], ["其他高技术设备零部件", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 199.9, "ret_prev2_year": -0.8, "ret_ytd": 5.4, "ret_pivot": 358.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -9.7, "ret_60": -23.4, "ret_120": -28.9, "ret_250": 53.8, "mdd_250": -49.9, "vol_250": 62.6, "pos_52w": 52.9}, "S": {"duration": 88, "pricing": 59, "hard": 72, "bondness": 37}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 64 亿,占总资产 45%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 36.2%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.7 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 -1.5%,股息率 0.3%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 94%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 45%)和定价权(毛利率 36.2% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.5%(经营现金流/市值 0.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 36.2%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 45%,资本开支/折旧 2.71 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 83.6 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 54%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 63%,现价在 52 周高点的 53%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -10% / -23% / -29%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年已经跑过,加仓看信号。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "应流股份:PE 比行业中位高 33.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 7.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 24.1个百分点。"]}}