{"F": {"ts_code": "603307.SH", "name": "扬州金泉", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "纺织服饰", "sw2": "服装家纺", "sw3": "鞋帽及其他", "ind": "服装家纺", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20230216", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 24.81, "pe_ttm": 23.0843, "pb": 1.7437, "dv_ttm": 3.8884, "total_mv": 244903.7277, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [21.3, 21.2, 27.4, 32.5, 26.0, 23.8], "rev_series": [6.0, 7.8, 11.3, 8.5, 8.3, 8.5], "np_series": [0.6, 1.0, 2.4, 2.3, 1.4, 1.1], "roe_series": [16.0, 23.9, 40.2, 22.2, 10.6, 7.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 8.9, "np_ttm": 1.1, "ocf_ttm": 1.2, "fcf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_yield": 4.0, "ocf_yield": 4.8, "gm_median": 26.0, "gm_std": 3.8, "gm_stab": 0.85, "gm_chg_2022": 6.1, "npm_median": 18.3, "roe_median": 22.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 8.8, "fix_assets": 1.6, "goodwill_ratio": 5.2, "pb_calc": 1.74, "capex_dep": 0.76, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 17.3, "debt_mv": 0.2, "payout": 46.5, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -9.0, "np_cagr3": -23.0, "rev_yoy": 8.1, "np_yoy": -4.8, "np_vol": 65.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 78.0, "earn_yield": 4.3, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["户外用品", 33.0], ["户外产品", 33.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 13.3, "ret_prev2_year": -20.0, "ret_ytd": -6.1, "ret_pivot": 45.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.4, "ret_60": -4.5, "ret_120": -7.6, "ret_250": -9.7, "mdd_250": -34.2, "vol_250": 33.3, "pos_52w": 77.1}, "S": {"duration": 44, "pricing": 54, "hard": 14, "bondness": 60}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 46%、股息率 3.9%、营收 3 年复合 -9.0%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.0 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 9%,毛利率近 5 年中位 26.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.0%(经营现金流/市值 4.8%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 26.0%,稳定度 85%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 6.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 9%,资本开支/折旧 0.76 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 23.1 倍 粗算,约 78%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -10%,最大回撤 -34%,年化波动 33%,现价在 52 周高点的 77%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / -4% / -8%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「服装家纺」60 家中位:PE 37.6 / 股息率 2.4% / 毛利率 41.5% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 66%。", "扬州金泉:PE 比行业中位低 14.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 15.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.3个百分点。"]}}