{"F": {"ts_code": "603301.SH", "name": "振德医疗", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "医疗器械", "sw3": "医疗耗材", "ind": "医疗器械", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20180412", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 81.23, "pe_ttm": 77.4285, "pb": 3.7762, "dv_ttm": 0.3693, "total_mv": 2143466.3726, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [47.0, 34.8, 35.0, 34.7, 34.0, 33.9], "rev_series": [104.0, 50.9, 61.4, 41.3, 42.6, 43.3], "np_series": [25.5, 6.0, 6.8, 2.0, 3.9, 2.6], "roe_series": [92.0, 14.4, 14.2, 3.6, 7.0, 4.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 44.5, "np_ttm": 2.8, "ocf_ttm": 4.2, "fcf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_yield": 0.2, "ocf_yield": 2.0, "gm_median": 34.7, "gm_std": 0.4, "gm_stab": 0.99, "gm_chg_2022": -12.0, "npm_median": 9.3, "roe_median": 7.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 41.1, "fix_assets": 34.3, "goodwill_ratio": 12.3, "pb_calc": 3.78, "capex_dep": 1.34, "interest_debt": 13.3, "debt_ebitda": 1.9, "debt_ratio": 28.8, "debt_mv": 6.2, "payout": 44.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -11.0, "np_cagr3": -27.4, "rev_yoy": 5.9, "np_yoy": 12.5, "np_vol": 63.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.3, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["手术感控产品", 15.0], ["手术感控", 15.0], ["基础护理", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 233.7, "ret_prev2_year": -8.7, "ret_ytd": 15.7, "ret_pivot": 334.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -4.8, "ret_60": -3.0, "ret_120": -11.8, "ret_250": 237.8, "mdd_250": -35.0, "vol_250": 53.0, "pos_52w": 81.3}, "S": {"duration": 86, "pricing": 56, "hard": 66, "bondness": 44}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 77.4 倍、股息率 0.4%、毛利率近 5 年中位 34.7%、固定资产占比 41%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.9 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 41%、毛利率 34.7% 两条都占,但所在行业(医药生物)不在硬资产名单里(医药/科技的固定资产是产能不是储量),按主标签看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.2%(经营现金流/市值 2.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 34.7%,稳定度 99%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -12.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 41%,资本开支/折旧 1.34 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 77.4 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 238%,最大回撤 -35%,年化波动 53%,现价在 52 周高点的 81%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -5% / -3% / -12%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「医疗器械」140 家中位:PE 38.6 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 55.4% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 45%。", "振德医疗:PE 比行业中位高 38.8倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 20.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 19.2个百分点。"]}}