{"F": {"ts_code": "603300.SH", "name": "海南华铁", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "非银金融", "sw2": "多元金融", "sw3": "租赁", "ind": "多元金融", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20150529", "is_fin": true, "roles": {"fin": true, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.9, "pe_ttm": 23.1091, "pb": 1.4353, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 979602.218, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [53.9, 51.6, 50.3, 46.5, 43.2, 38.2], "rev_series": [15.2, 26.1, 32.8, 44.4, 51.7, 59.9], "np_series": [3.2, 5.0, 6.4, 8.0, 6.0, 5.3], "roe_series": [12.7, 14.1, 15.5, 15.8, 10.4, 8.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 63.6, "np_ttm": 4.2, "ocf_ttm": 33.2, "fcf_ttm": 20.1, "fcf_yield": 20.5, "ocf_yield": 33.9, "gm_median": 46.5, "gm_std": 4.9, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -3.7, "npm_median": 18.9, "roe_median": 14.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 28.7, "fix_assets": 87.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.5, "pb_calc": 1.44, "capex_dep": 1.38, "interest_debt": 186.6, "debt_ebitda": 4.8, "debt_ratio": 77.3, "debt_mv": 190.4, "payout": 13.4, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 22.2, "np_cagr3": -6.3, "rev_yoy": 13.3, "np_yoy": -30.3, "np_vol": 28.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 78.0, "earn_yield": 4.3, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["经营租赁及服务", 49.0], ["经营租赁", 49.0], ["其他业务", 1.0], ["其他主营业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 36.4, "ret_prev2_year": -9.4, "ret_ytd": -37.6, "ret_pivot": 18.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.0, "ret_60": -1.2, "ret_120": -31.4, "ret_250": -57.2, "mdd_250": -62.8, "vol_250": 40.4, "pos_52w": 42.2}, "S": {"duration": 44, "pricing": null, "hard": null, "bondness": 19}, "label": "金融·利差生意", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["海南华铁 是多元金融。银行赚的是利差,券商保险赚的是资产端与费率,毛利率与固定资产两个轴对它没有意义。", "ROE 近 5 年中位 14.1%,PB 1.44倍,股息率 —,分红率 13%。", "利率上行对银行是净息差扩张(少数受益方向);对保险是资产端浮亏、对券商是交投与融资成本。"], "加息期怎么走": "按笔记:日债/美债收益率上行期,银行股是例外的受益方向;红利型大行按'现金流红利'拿,盯息差而不盯黄金。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "金融业现金流表不适用;用盈利收益率 4.3%(1/PE)与股息率 — 看。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 23.1 倍 粗算,约 78%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -57%,最大回撤 -63%,年化波动 40%,现价在 52 周高点的 42%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / -1% / -31%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「多元金融」24 家中位:PE 20.1 / 股息率 1.4% / 毛利率 28.6% / 固定资产占比 1% / 分红率 31%。", "海南华铁:PE 比行业中位高 3.0倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 17.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 28.0个百分点。"]}}