{"F": {"ts_code": "603299.SH", "name": "苏盐井神", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学原料", "sw3": "无机盐", "ind": "化学原料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20151231", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.93, "pe_ttm": 24.1722, "pb": 1.0602, "dv_ttm": 2.8219, "total_mv": 852600.5907, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [23.7, 26.9, 33.4, 34.0, 35.6, 34.6], "rev_series": [39.4, 47.6, 59.7, 56.8, 53.4, 45.1], "np_series": [1.5, 3.3, 8.0, 7.4, 7.7, 5.2], "roe_series": [3.7, 8.0, 17.1, 13.9, 13.3, 8.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 43.4, "np_ttm": 3.5, "ocf_ttm": 2.3, "fcf_ttm": -9.2, "fcf_yield": -10.8, "ocf_yield": 2.7, "gm_median": 34.0, "gm_std": 3.1, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": 9.8, "npm_median": 13.0, "roe_median": 13.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 39.4, "fix_assets": 55.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.06, "capex_dep": 2.49, "interest_debt": 33.9, "debt_ebitda": 3.8, "debt_ratio": 40.3, "debt_mv": 39.8, "payout": 44.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -8.9, "np_cagr3": -13.4, "rev_yoy": -7.1, "np_yoy": -49.2, "np_vol": 72.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 79.0, "earn_yield": 4.1, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 16.3, "fwd_pe2": 12.1, "fwd_g1": 48.0, "fwd_g2": 35.0, "peg": 0.47, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 35.0], ["主营业务", 34.0], ["盐产品", 22.0], ["碱类产品", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": -2.7, "ret_prev2_year": 41.1, "ret_ytd": -12.2, "ret_pivot": -3.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.7, "ret_60": -6.6, "ret_120": -25.4, "ret_250": -22.5, "mdd_250": -27.8, "vol_250": 26.6, "pos_52w": 73.8}, "S": {"duration": 45, "pricing": 60, "hard": 63, "bondness": 64}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 56 亿,占总资产 39%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 34.0%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 9.8 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 -10.8%,股息率 2.8%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 79%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 39%)和定价权(毛利率 34.0% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -10.8%(经营现金流/市值 2.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 34.0%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 9.8 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 39%,资本开支/折旧 2.49 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 24.2 倍 粗算,约 79%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -22%,最大回撤 -28%,年化波动 27%,现价在 52 周高点的 74%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -7% / -25%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学原料」59 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 16.8% / 固定资产占比 47% / 分红率 40%。", "苏盐井神:PE 比行业中位低 11.7倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 17.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 8.0个百分点。"]}}