{"F": {"ts_code": "603297.SH", "name": "永新光学", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "光学光电子", "sw3": "光学元件", "ind": "光学光电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20180910", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 107.55, "pe_ttm": 57.5088, "pb": 5.7994, "dv_ttm": 0.8368, "total_mv": 1190891.4705, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [42.9, 42.8, 42.1, 38.4, 39.0, 39.3], "rev_series": [5.8, 8.0, 8.3, 8.5, 8.9, 9.7], "np_series": [1.6, 2.6, 2.8, 2.4, 2.1, 2.2], "roe_series": [13.5, 19.1, 17.8, 13.5, 11.1, 11.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 10.9, "np_ttm": 2.1, "ocf_ttm": 2.1, "fcf_ttm": 1.5, "fcf_yield": 1.2, "ocf_yield": 1.8, "gm_median": 39.3, "gm_std": 1.8, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -0.8, "npm_median": 27.5, "roe_median": 13.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 22.6, "fix_assets": 6.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 5.8, "capex_dep": 1.47, "interest_debt": 5.4, "debt_ebitda": 1.9, "debt_ratio": 28.5, "debt_mv": 4.5, "payout": 45.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 5.2, "np_cagr3": -7.6, "rev_yoy": 28.0, "np_yoy": -11.8, "np_vol": 27.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 91.0, "earn_yield": 1.7, "consensus_n": 7, "fwd_pe": 40.0, "fwd_pe2": 30.0, "fwd_g1": 44.0, "fwd_g2": 33.0, "peg": 1.21, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 49.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 13.4, "ret_prev2_year": -4.7, "ret_ytd": 3.0, "ret_pivot": 110.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.3, "ret_60": -8.1, "ret_120": -6.5, "ret_250": 9.5, "mdd_250": -42.6, "vol_250": 55.2, "pos_52w": 71.5}, "S": {"duration": 76, "pricing": 60, "hard": 36, "bondness": 41}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 57.5 倍、股息率 0.8%、毛利率近 5 年中位 39.3%、固定资产占比 23%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.9 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 39.3%),硬资产占比 23%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.2%(经营现金流/市值 1.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 39.3%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.8 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 23%,资本开支/折旧 1.47 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 57.5 倍 粗算,约 91%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 10%,最大回撤 -43%,年化波动 55%,现价在 52 周高点的 72%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / -8% / -6%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「光学光电子」95 家中位:PE 61.6 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 19.3% / 固定资产占比 31% / 分红率 43%。", "永新光学:PE 比行业中位低 4.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 20.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 8.8个百分点。"]}}