{"F": {"ts_code": "603291.SH", "name": "联合水务", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "环保", "sw2": "环境治理", "sw3": "水务及水治理", "ind": "环境治理", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20230327", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.91, "pe_ttm": 40.005, "pb": 2.1487, "dv_ttm": 2.2447, "total_mv": 377089.5546, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [39.0, 33.9, 31.9, 35.1, 31.9, 32.3], "rev_series": [8.0, 10.4, 11.6, 11.3, 11.4, 11.0], "np_series": [1.2, 1.4, 1.3, 1.6, 1.5, 1.0], "roe_series": [13.1, 12.6, 9.9, 10.3, 8.6, 5.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 10.2, "np_ttm": 0.9, "ocf_ttm": 2.9, "fcf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_yield": 2.5, "ocf_yield": 7.7, "gm_median": 32.3, "gm_std": 1.3, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -7.1, "npm_median": 13.6, "roe_median": 9.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 20.0, "fix_assets": 7.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.15, "capex_dep": 2.97, "interest_debt": 10.4, "debt_ebitda": 3.0, "debt_ratio": 52.0, "debt_mv": 27.5, "payout": 52.2, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -1.6, "np_cagr3": -7.9, "rev_yoy": -15.5, "np_yoy": -19.8, "np_vol": 20.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 88.0, "earn_yield": 2.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 41.0], ["供水及衍生业务", 22.0], ["污水处理业务", 15.0], ["污水处理与资源化利用", 15.0]], "ret_prev_year": -16.3, "ret_prev2_year": -23.0, "ret_ytd": -5.6, "ret_pivot": -1.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.2, "ret_60": -2.8, "ret_120": -21.1, "ret_250": -27.5, "mdd_250": -38.3, "vol_250": 38.3, "pos_52w": 71.2}, "S": {"duration": 63, "pricing": 53, "hard": 32, "bondness": 61}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 40.0 倍、股息率 2.2%、毛利率近 5 年中位 32.3%、固定资产占比 20%、有息负债/EBITDA 3.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 32.3%),硬资产占比 20%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.5%(经营现金流/市值 7.7%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 32.3%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 20%,资本开支/折旧 2.97 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 40.0 倍 粗算,约 88%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -28%,最大回撤 -38%,年化波动 38%,现价在 52 周高点的 71%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -3% / -21%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「环境治理」107 家中位:PE 26.1 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 27.6% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 38%。", "联合水务:PE 比行业中位高 13.9倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 4.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 6.1个百分点。"]}}