{"F": {"ts_code": "603288.SH", "name": "海天味业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "调味发酵品Ⅱ", "sw3": "调味发酵品Ⅲ", "ind": "调味发酵品Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20140211", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 34.4, "pe_ttm": 27.5074, "pb": 5.1486, "dv_ttm": 3.9496, "total_mv": 20127594.8, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [42.2, 38.7, 35.7, 34.7, 37.0, 40.2], "rev_series": [227.9, 250.0, 256.1, 245.6, 269.0, 288.7], "np_series": [64.0, 66.7, 62.0, 56.3, 63.4, 70.4], "roe_series": [34.9, 30.7, 24.9, 20.5, 21.4, 19.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 297.9, "np_ttm": 73.1, "ocf_ttm": 74.7, "fcf_ttm": 62.0, "fcf_yield": 3.1, "ocf_yield": 3.7, "gm_median": 37.0, "gm_std": 2.0, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -6.5, "npm_median": 24.2, "roe_median": 21.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 14.5, "fix_assets": 68.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.2, "pb_calc": 5.15, "capex_dep": 1.65, "interest_debt": 4.4, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 16.0, "debt_mv": 0.2, "payout": 75.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 4.1, "np_cagr3": 4.3, "rev_yoy": 6.0, "np_yoy": 7.1, "np_vol": 9.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 82.0, "earn_yield": 3.6, "consensus_n": 36, "fwd_pe": 26.0, "fwd_pe2": 23.5, "fwd_g1": 6.0, "fwd_g2": 11.0, "peg": 2.36, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 44.0], ["酱油", 23.0], ["其他主营业务", 8.0], ["其他", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": -17.8, "ret_prev2_year": 24.6, "ret_ytd": -4.2, "ret_pivot": 1.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -5.5, "ret_60": 0.1, "ret_120": -7.0, "ret_250": -13.4, "mdd_250": -21.7, "vol_250": 22.6, "pos_52w": 83.1}, "S": {"duration": 50, "pricing": 56, "hard": 23, "bondness": 66}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 75%、股息率 3.9%、营收 3 年复合 4.1%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.0 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 37.0%),硬资产占比 14%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.1%(经营现金流/市值 3.7%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 37.0%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 14%,资本开支/折旧 1.65 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 27.5 倍 粗算,约 82%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -13%,最大回撤 -22%,年化波动 23%,现价在 52 周高点的 83%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -6% / 0% / -7%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「调味发酵品Ⅱ」15 家中位:PE 27.1 / 股息率 2.4% / 毛利率 34.4% / 固定资产占比 39% / 分红率 67%。", "海天味业:PE 比行业中位高 0.4倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 2.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 24.2个百分点。"]}}