{"F": {"ts_code": "603285.SH", "name": "键邦股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "其他化学制品", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20240705", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 31.43, "pe_ttm": 37.0041, "pb": 2.9259, "dv_ttm": 0.8244, "total_mv": 502880.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [39.6, 43.1, 43.0, 37.1, 33.6, 29.4], "rev_series": [null, null, 7.5, 6.7, 6.7, 6.2], "np_series": [null, null, 2.4, 1.9, 1.6, 1.4], "roe_series": [63.6, 70.2, 35.6, 22.6, 12.4, 8.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.5, "np_ttm": 1.4, "ocf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_yield": 0.3, "ocf_yield": 2.7, "gm_median": 37.1, "gm_std": 5.3, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": 3.4, "npm_median": 28.1, "roe_median": 22.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 13.3, "fix_assets": 2.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.93, "capex_dep": 4.81, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 10.9, "debt_mv": 0.0, "payout": 67.5, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -6.4, "np_cagr3": -17.6, "rev_yoy": 11.6, "np_yoy": 0.1, "np_vol": 58.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 86.0, "earn_yield": 2.7, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 25.1, "fwd_pe2": 20.4, "fwd_g1": 47.0, "fwd_g2": 23.0, "peg": 1.09, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["功能助剂", 30.0], ["PVC热稳定剂", 18.0], ["其他产品", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 7.9, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": 30.4, "ret_pivot": 74.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -11.9, "ret_60": -30.9, "ret_120": -10.5, "ret_250": 30.0, "mdd_250": -49.4, "vol_250": 67.7, "pos_52w": 58.0}, "S": {"duration": 60, "pricing": 59, "hard": 21, "bondness": 49}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 37.0 倍、股息率 0.8%、毛利率近 5 年中位 37.1%、固定资产占比 13%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 37.1%),硬资产占比 13%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.3%(经营现金流/市值 2.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 37.1%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.4 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 13%,资本开支/折旧 4.81 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 37.0 倍 粗算,约 86%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 30%,最大回撤 -49%,年化波动 68%,现价在 52 周高点的 58%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -12% / -31% / -10%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "键邦股份:PE 比行业中位高 1.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 14.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 21.2个百分点。"]}}