{"F": {"ts_code": "603284.SH", "name": "林平发展", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "造纸", "sw3": "大宗用纸", "ind": "造纸", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20260210", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 41.48, "pe_ttm": 14.8764, "pb": 1.3981, "dv_ttm": 1.4947, "total_mv": 312820.5904, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [7.7, 9.8, 9.4, 9.3], "rev_series": [28.8, 28.0, 24.9, 26.7], "np_series": [1.5, 2.1, 1.5, 1.9], "roe_series": [16.6, 20.2, 12.3, 12.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 31.7, "np_ttm": 2.1, "ocf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_ttm": -1.3, "fcf_yield": -4.2, "ocf_yield": 1.1, "gm_median": 9.3, "gm_std": 0.8, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 6.6, "roe_median": 14.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 53.8, "fix_assets": 18.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.4, "capex_dep": 1.08, "interest_debt": 6.7, "debt_ebitda": 1.7, "debt_ratio": 34.0, "debt_mv": 21.4, "payout": 18.9, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": -2.5, "np_cagr3": 6.3, "rev_yoy": 41.1, "np_yoy": 27.3, "np_vol": 27.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 66.0, "earn_yield": 6.7, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 11.6, "fwd_pe2": 8.7, "fwd_g1": 29.0, "fwd_g2": 32.0, "peg": 0.36, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["造纸销售收入", 50.0], ["造纸", 50.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.1, "ret_60": 9.3, "ret_120": -14.7, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": -39.0, "vol_250": 45.0, "pos_52w": 71.1}, "S": {"duration": 31, "pricing": 44, "hard": 86, "bondness": 41}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 54%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 9.3%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "有息负债/EBITDA 1.7 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 54%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 9.3%,稳定度 91%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -4.2%(经营现金流/市值 1.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 9.3%,稳定度 91%。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 54%,资本开支/折旧 1.08 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 14.9 倍 粗算,约 66%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「造纸」25 家中位:PE 21.5 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 13.1% / 固定资产占比 50% / 分红率 33%。", "林平发展:PE 比行业中位低 6.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 3.9个百分点。"]}}