{"F": {"ts_code": "603281.SH", "name": "江瀚新材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "有机硅", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20230131", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 18.9, "pe_ttm": 25.3969, "pb": 1.971, "dv_ttm": 3.7059, "total_mv": 980223.552, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [33.9, 38.0, 42.7, 37.6, 34.3, 27.2], "rev_series": [13.6, 25.4, 33.1, 22.8, 22.2, 18.6], "np_series": [3.1, 6.8, 10.4, 6.5, 6.0, 4.2], "roe_series": [30.6, 68.0, 55.8, 18.3, 12.4, 8.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 20.1, "np_ttm": 3.9, "ocf_ttm": 2.7, "fcf_ttm": 1.3, "fcf_yield": 1.3, "ocf_yield": 2.8, "gm_median": 37.6, "gm_std": 5.1, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": 8.8, "npm_median": 27.2, "roe_median": 18.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 14.1, "fix_assets": 7.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.97, "capex_dep": 1.44, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 6.6, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 113.0, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -17.5, "np_cagr3": -26.2, "rev_yoy": 15.5, "np_yoy": -15.3, "np_vol": 59.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 80.0, "earn_yield": 3.9, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 11.7, "fwd_pe2": 9.8, "fwd_g1": 117.0, "fwd_g2": 19.0, "peg": 0.62, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["硅烷偶联剂", 98.0], ["其他收入", 1.0], ["其他", 1.0], ["合计特别调整", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 19.4, "ret_prev2_year": -3.8, "ret_ytd": -1.1, "ret_pivot": 24.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -10.2, "ret_60": -21.3, "ret_120": -15.5, "ret_250": 4.1, "mdd_250": -37.0, "vol_250": 45.3, "pos_52w": 64.3}, "S": {"duration": 47, "pricing": 60, "hard": 23, "bondness": 80}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 113%、股息率 3.7%、营收 3 年复合 -17.5%、资产负债率 7%:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 37.6%),硬资产占比 14%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.3%(经营现金流/市值 2.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 37.6%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 8.8 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 14%,资本开支/折旧 1.44 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 25.4 倍 粗算,约 80%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 4%,最大回撤 -37%,年化波动 45%,现价在 52 周高点的 64%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -10% / -21% / -16%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "江瀚新材:PE 比行业中位低 10.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 15.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 20.4个百分点。"]}}