{"F": {"ts_code": "603280.SH", "name": "南方路机", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "工程机械", "sw3": "工程机械整机", "ind": "工程机械", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20221108", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 27.45, "pe_ttm": 43.0978, "pb": 2.16, "dv_ttm": 1.02, "total_mv": 297576.3915, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [29.5, 27.6, 22.1, 25.6, 27.7, 30.1], "rev_series": [11.4, 12.8, 12.2, 11.4, 10.0, 10.4], "np_series": [1.4, 1.6, 1.1, 1.2, 0.9, 0.9], "roe_series": [47.2, 35.8, 13.7, 9.9, 7.1, 7.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 9.6, "np_ttm": 0.7, "ocf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_yield": 0.8, "ocf_yield": 3.1, "gm_median": 27.6, "gm_std": 2.7, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -7.4, "npm_median": 9.4, "roe_median": 9.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 3.8, "fix_assets": 0.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.16, "capex_dep": 4.38, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 39.5, "debt_mv": 0.2, "payout": 31.0, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -5.2, "np_cagr3": -6.1, "rev_yoy": -15.8, "np_yoy": -44.4, "np_vol": 15.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 88.0, "earn_yield": 2.3, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["工程搅拌设备", 22.0], ["原生骨料加工处理设备", 16.0], ["配件", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 82.5, "ret_prev2_year": -21.3, "ret_ytd": -26.1, "ret_pivot": 52.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.1, "ret_60": 1.4, "ret_120": -32.1, "ret_250": -38.6, "mdd_250": -48.5, "vol_250": 46.6, "pos_52w": 60.9}, "S": {"duration": 66, "pricing": 49, "hard": 6, "bondness": 37}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 43.1 倍、股息率 1.0%、毛利率近 5 年中位 27.6%、固定资产占比 4%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 4%,毛利率近 5 年中位 27.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.8%(经营现金流/市值 3.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 27.6%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 4%,资本开支/折旧 4.38 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 43.1 倍 粗算,约 88%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -39%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 47%,现价在 52 周高点的 61%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / 1% / -32%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工程机械」35 家中位:PE 28.3 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 26.1% / 固定资产占比 17% / 分红率 33%。", "南方路机:PE 比行业中位高 14.8倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 13.4个百分点。"]}}