{"F": {"ts_code": "603278.SH", "name": "大业股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "金属制品", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20171113", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.21, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.6594, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 314760.4074, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [9.3, 7.2, 2.1, 8.2, 2.9, 6.3], "rev_series": [30.7, 50.9, 52.1, 55.6, 51.0, 50.3], "np_series": [1.0, 2.1, -2.6, 1.0, -1.7, -0.1], "roe_series": [5.9, 11.4, -14.0, 4.8, -7.8, -0.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 49.7, "np_ttm": -1.2, "ocf_ttm": -1.5, "fcf_ttm": -4.0, "fcf_yield": -12.8, "ocf_yield": -4.7, "gm_median": 6.3, "gm_std": 2.4, "gm_stab": 0.62, "gm_chg_2022": -7.2, "npm_median": -0.3, "roe_median": -0.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 45.6, "fix_assets": 38.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.66, "capex_dep": 0.86, "interest_debt": 34.2, "debt_ebitda": 9.8, "debt_ratio": 77.3, "debt_mv": 108.6, "payout": 10.6, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": -1.2, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -2.3, "np_yoy": -250.9, "np_vol": 178.4, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["钢帘线", 24.0], ["胎圈钢丝", 21.0], ["胶管钢丝", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 124.5, "ret_prev2_year": -39.6, "ret_ytd": -46.0, "ret_pivot": 77.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.5, "ret_60": -23.6, "ret_120": -19.1, "ret_250": -13.8, "mdd_250": -54.4, "vol_250": 63.9, "pos_52w": 52.0}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 29, "hard": 73, "bondness": 39}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 46%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 6.3%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.2 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 9.8 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 46%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 6.3%,稳定度 62%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -12.8%(经营现金流/市值 -4.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 6.3%,稳定度 62%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 46%,资本开支/折旧 0.86 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -14%,最大回撤 -54%,年化波动 64%,现价在 52 周高点的 52%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / -24% / -19%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "大业股份:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 22.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 24.8个百分点。"]}}