{"F": {"ts_code": "603273.SH", "name": "天元智能", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "工程机械", "sw3": "工程机械整机", "ind": "工程机械", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20231023", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.56, "pe_ttm": 133.2137, "pb": 3.5152, "dv_ttm": 0.3416, "total_mv": 313671.0304, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [17.8, 14.8, 15.1, 16.8, 14.9, 17.8], "rev_series": [7.5, 11.1, 9.9, 8.2, 6.4, 5.1], "np_series": [0.7, 0.8, 0.7, 0.6, 0.4, 0.3], "roe_series": [32.8, 33.3, 23.2, 10.0, 4.5, 2.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.6, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_yield": 2.3, "ocf_yield": 2.8, "gm_median": 15.1, "gm_std": 1.2, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -2.7, "npm_median": 7.2, "roe_median": 10.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 6.2, "fix_assets": 0.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.52, "capex_dep": 1.01, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 35.1, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 38.9, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -19.8, "np_cagr3": -29.0, "rev_yoy": -15.9, "np_yoy": -10.9, "np_vol": 19.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["装备配套产品", 18.0], ["机械装备配套产品", 18.0], ["蒸压加气混凝土装备", 14.0]], "ret_prev_year": 27.5, "ret_prev2_year": -33.8, "ret_ytd": -30.5, "ret_pivot": -7.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.7, "ret_60": 0.8, "ret_120": -25.7, "ret_250": -36.2, "mdd_250": -44.2, "vol_250": 33.5, "pos_52w": 65.4}, "S": {"duration": 96, "pricing": 45, "hard": 10, "bondness": 39}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 133.2 倍,估值里约 96% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 6%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 6%,毛利率近 5 年中位 15.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.3%(经营现金流/市值 2.8%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 15.1%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 6%,资本开支/折旧 1.01 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 133.2 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -36%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 34%,现价在 52 周高点的 65%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / 1% / -26%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工程机械」35 家中位:PE 28.3 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 26.1% / 固定资产占比 17% / 分红率 33%。", "天元智能:PE 比行业中位高 104.9倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 11.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 11.0个百分点。"]}}