{"F": {"ts_code": "603271.SH", "name": "永杰新材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "工业金属", "sw3": "铝", "ind": "工业金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20250311", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 41.04, "pe_ttm": 10.9363, "pb": 2.3984, "dv_ttm": 1.5441, "total_mv": 813146.04, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [7.8, 9.5, 9.8, 8.9, 8.7, 9.1], "rev_series": [38.3, 63.0, 71.5, 65.0, 81.1, 96.4], "np_series": [0.6, 2.4, 3.5, 2.4, 3.2, 4.2], "roe_series": [33.9, 46.5, 36.7, 19.2, 21.1, 18.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 104.4, "np_ttm": 7.4, "ocf_ttm": 3.5, "fcf_ttm": 2.8, "fcf_yield": 3.4, "ocf_yield": 4.3, "gm_median": 9.1, "gm_std": 0.4, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": 1.9, "npm_median": 3.9, "roe_median": 21.1, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 16.2, "fix_assets": 12.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.4, "capex_dep": 0.64, "interest_debt": 12.7, "debt_ebitda": 1.9, "debt_ratio": 55.0, "debt_mv": 15.7, "payout": 21.6, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 10.5, "np_cagr3": 5.5, "rev_yoy": 18.0, "np_yoy": 176.7, "np_vol": 103.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 54.0, "earn_yield": 9.1, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 11.4, "fwd_pe2": 7.4, "fwd_g1": -4.0, "fwd_g2": 54.0, "peg": 0.21, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["铝板带", 43.0], ["铝箔", 6.0], ["其他", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": 1.0, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -6.6, "ret_60": -7.9, "ret_120": -9.9, "ret_250": 2.4, "mdd_250": -25.1, "vol_250": 42.5, "pos_52w": 75.4}, "S": {"duration": 24, "pricing": 70, "hard": 26, "bondness": 32}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["商品定价", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 10.9 倍、股息率 1.5%、毛利率近 5 年中位 9.1%、固定资产占比 16%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.9 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 9.1%),硬资产占比 16%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.4%(经营现金流/市值 4.3%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 9.1%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 16%,资本开支/折旧 0.64 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 10.9 倍 粗算,约 54%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 2%,最大回撤 -25%,年化波动 42%,现价在 52 周高点的 75%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -7% / -8% / -10%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工业金属」60 家中位:PE 20.5 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 10.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 32%。", "永杰新材:PE 比行业中位低 9.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 11.3个百分点。"]}}