{"F": {"ts_code": "603270.SH", "name": "金帝股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "金属制品", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20230901", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 33.37, "pe_ttm": 52.6238, "pb": 3.1956, "dv_ttm": 0.9589, "total_mv": 731159.0579, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [38.8, 34.1, 32.7, 33.1, 28.6, 26.0], "rev_series": [6.3, 9.1, 11.0, 11.4, 13.6, 20.2], "np_series": [1.1, 1.2, 1.3, 1.3, 1.0, 1.5], "roe_series": [26.2, 17.9, 14.7, 8.7, 4.6, 6.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 23.3, "np_ttm": 1.4, "ocf_ttm": -3.7, "fcf_ttm": -12.1, "fcf_yield": -16.6, "ocf_yield": -5.1, "gm_median": 32.7, "gm_std": 3.1, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -6.1, "npm_median": 11.4, "roe_median": 8.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 35.8, "fix_assets": 24.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.09, "capex_dep": 4.96, "interest_debt": 30.4, "debt_ebitda": 8.3, "debt_ratio": 65.7, "debt_mv": 41.5, "payout": 44.4, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 22.6, "np_cagr3": 5.2, "rev_yoy": 37.3, "np_yoy": -10.9, "np_vol": 23.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 90.0, "earn_yield": 1.9, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["精密零部件", 18.0], ["汽车零部件", 18.0], ["轴承保持架及配件", 13.0]], "ret_prev_year": 41.4, "ret_prev2_year": -36.5, "ret_ytd": 24.0, "ret_pivot": 113.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 19.8, "ret_60": 10.9, "ret_120": 33.4, "ret_250": 20.1, "mdd_250": -35.7, "vol_250": 45.7, "pos_52w": 95.5}, "S": {"duration": 73, "pricing": 52, "hard": 57, "bondness": 36}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 25 亿,占总资产 36%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 32.7%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.1 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 -16.6%,股息率 1.0%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 90%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 36%)和定价权(毛利率 32.7% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -16.6%(经营现金流/市值 -5.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 32.7%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 36%,资本开支/折旧 4.96 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 52.6 倍 粗算,约 90%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 20%,最大回撤 -36%,年化波动 46%,现价在 52 周高点的 96%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 20% / 11% / 33%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "金帝股份:PE 比行业中位高 2.0倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 4.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 15.0个百分点。"]}}