{"F": {"ts_code": "603269.SH", "name": "海鸥股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "其他通用设备", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170517", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 27.41, "pe_ttm": 98.5591, "pb": 11.7113, "dv_ttm": 0.4682, "total_mv": 1183962.6155, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [31.5, 28.3, 27.1, 28.7, 29.8, 31.3], "rev_series": [8.3, 11.3, 13.5, 13.8, 16.0, 18.4], "np_series": [0.5, 0.5, 0.7, 0.8, 1.0, 1.2], "roe_series": [6.0, 6.1, 8.1, 8.8, 9.4, 11.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 18.7, "np_ttm": 1.2, "ocf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_ttm": -0.5, "fcf_yield": -0.4, "ocf_yield": -0.2, "gm_median": 28.7, "gm_std": 1.4, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -4.4, "npm_median": 6.4, "roe_median": 8.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 9.1, "fix_assets": 3.2, "goodwill_ratio": 2.8, "pb_calc": 11.71, "capex_dep": 0.97, "interest_debt": 7.6, "debt_ebitda": 3.0, "debt_ratio": 69.9, "debt_mv": 6.5, "payout": 55.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 10.8, "np_cagr3": 16.2, "rev_yoy": 2.7, "np_yoy": 12.8, "np_vol": 9.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.0, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 63.7, "fwd_pe2": 43.3, "fwd_g1": 55.0, "fwd_g2": 47.0, "peg": 1.36, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 50.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 77.6, "ret_prev2_year": 14.9, "ret_ytd": 197.2, "ret_pivot": 716.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 94.1, "ret_60": 82.4, "ret_120": 138.8, "ret_250": 242.6, "mdd_250": -40.4, "vol_250": 67.8, "pos_52w": 97.8}, "S": {"duration": 91, "pricing": 52, "hard": 15, "bondness": 40}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 98.6 倍,估值里约 95% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 9%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(2 篇研报)前瞻 PE 63.7 倍,次年 43.3 倍,PEG 1.36。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 9%,毛利率近 5 年中位 28.7%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.4%(经营现金流/市值 -0.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 28.7%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 9%,资本开支/折旧 0.97 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 98.6 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 243%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 68%,现价在 52 周高点的 98%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 94% / 82% / 139%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;已在高位,贴现率冲击时跌幅按 PE 放大。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "海鸥股份:PE 比行业中位高 48.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 11.7个百分点。"]}}