{"F": {"ts_code": "603267.SH", "name": "鸿远电子", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "国防军工", "sw2": "军工电子Ⅱ", "sw3": "军工电子Ⅲ", "ind": "军工电子Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20190515", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 47.5, "pe_ttm": 38.4691, "pb": 2.3948, "dv_ttm": 0.7353, "total_mv": 1097634.275, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [46.7, 51.5, 50.1, 40.5, 34.3, 44.4], "rev_series": [17.0, 24.0, 25.0, 16.8, 14.9, 17.9], "np_series": [4.9, 8.3, 8.0, 2.7, 1.5, 2.5], "roe_series": [20.8, 28.0, 22.0, 6.7, 3.7, 5.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 17.0, "np_ttm": 2.9, "ocf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_yield": 0.3, "ocf_yield": 0.9, "gm_median": 44.4, "gm_std": 6.3, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": 3.4, "npm_median": 16.1, "roe_median": 6.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 11.9, "fix_assets": 6.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 2.39, "capex_dep": 0.78, "interest_debt": 0.8, "debt_ebitda": 0.3, "debt_ratio": 13.2, "debt_mv": 0.7, "payout": 29.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -10.5, "np_cagr3": -32.3, "rev_yoy": -9.3, "np_yoy": 19.3, "np_vol": 54.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 87.0, "earn_yield": 2.6, "consensus_n": 7, "fwd_pe": 31.8, "fwd_pe2": 24.0, "fwd_g1": 21.0, "fwd_g2": 32.0, "peg": 0.99, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["电子元器件", 33.0], ["代理委托业务", 15.0], ["多层瓷介电容器", 15.0]], "ret_prev_year": 51.7, "ret_prev2_year": -27.6, "ret_ytd": -12.3, "ret_pivot": 63.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -8.5, "ret_60": -28.8, "ret_120": -13.4, "ret_250": -22.6, "mdd_250": -48.0, "vol_250": 55.9, "pos_52w": 56.8}, "S": {"duration": 62, "pricing": 62, "hard": 19, "bondness": 36}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 38.5 倍、股息率 0.7%、毛利率近 5 年中位 44.4%、固定资产占比 12%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.3 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 44.4%),硬资产占比 12%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.3%(经营现金流/市值 0.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 44.4%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.4 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 12%,资本开支/折旧 0.78 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 38.5 倍 粗算,约 87%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -23%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 56%,现价在 52 周高点的 57%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -8% / -29% / -13%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「军工电子Ⅱ」61 家中位:PE 79.0 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 39.7% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 33%。", "鸿远电子:PE 比行业中位低 40.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 4.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.2个百分点。"]}}