{"F": {"ts_code": "603266.SH", "name": "天龙股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "车身附件及饰件", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170110", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 16.61, "pe_ttm": 34.8278, "pb": 2.0265, "dv_ttm": 0.7225, "total_mv": 330350.9748, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [26.7, 21.0, 21.8, 22.3, 22.3, 23.1], "rev_series": [9.7, 11.8, 12.5, 13.2, 13.7, 13.2], "np_series": [0.9, 1.0, 1.2, 1.1, 1.1, 1.1], "roe_series": [9.6, 8.8, 9.6, 8.1, 7.5, 6.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 13.6, "np_ttm": 0.9, "ocf_ttm": 2.0, "fcf_ttm": 1.2, "fcf_yield": 3.6, "ocf_yield": 5.9, "gm_median": 22.3, "gm_std": 0.7, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": -4.9, "npm_median": 8.3, "roe_median": 8.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 12.3, "fix_assets": 2.9, "goodwill_ratio": 8.5, "pb_calc": 2.03, "capex_dep": 1.03, "interest_debt": 1.4, "debt_ebitda": 0.7, "debt_ratio": 30.3, "debt_mv": 4.1, "payout": 30.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 1.8, "np_cagr3": -4.8, "rev_yoy": 6.0, "np_yoy": -19.9, "np_vol": 12.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 86.0, "earn_yield": 2.9, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["轻量化功能结构件", 13.0], ["汽车轻量化功能结构件", 13.0], ["电子控制系统类零部件", 13.0]], "ret_prev_year": 43.2, "ret_prev2_year": -44.1, "ret_ytd": -26.6, "ret_pivot": 18.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.8, "ret_60": -2.7, "ret_120": -16.9, "ret_250": -26.4, "mdd_250": -45.6, "vol_250": 38.7, "pos_52w": 62.1}, "S": {"duration": 58, "pricing": 49, "hard": 20, "bondness": 35}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 34.8 倍、股息率 0.7%、毛利率近 5 年中位 22.3%、固定资产占比 12%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.7 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 12%,毛利率近 5 年中位 22.3%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.6%(经营现金流/市值 5.9%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 22.3%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 12%,资本开支/折旧 1.03 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 34.8 倍 粗算,约 86%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -26%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 39%,现价在 52 周高点的 62%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / -3% / -17%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "天龙股份:PE 比行业中位高 4.6倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 13.2个百分点。"]}}